Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Mark Potter

Deep Dive – November 2026 (Part 2)

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Introduction

Ten years ago, I would not have anticipated that I would now be worrying about how my long term and loyal (ex-client) web site subscribers might get on without access to my counsel and general assessment of the investment world after I finally go out to pasture! However, as you will have understood from Part One of this month’s Deep Dive, the issue must be addressed.

One thing I know already is that very few, if any readers will return to using what someone writing to me recently called ‘full-fat’ IFA services. As we know, these days such services are expensive and only really personalised for the seriously rich.

I have a responsibility to offer some guidance on how to go about running a significant investment portfolio as simply as possible, with at least a modicum of skill and technical knowledge such as I have sought to impart over recent years. I am quite sure that DIY investment management is something that can be done safely, with controlled risk and excellent returns, but I know from conversations that my subscribers find it useful to have a professional on hand as a sort of ‘insurance policy’ over and above getting concise market commentary and generally reliable predictions.

I can tell you that everyone I expect to be reading this deals with their portfolio differently. I can say that there is an element of common DNA is the portfolios I see, because of my output and in some cases specific training in investment techniques and portfolio review. Nonetheless, the actual holdings, amount of time spent on portfolio analysis, the use of supporting data, the frequency of monitoring, the levels of trading and of course the over-arching objectives vary very widely.

I outline next four forms of portfolio from quite complex to low maintenance with one variation catering for those who, like me, prefer some ethical or sustainablity filtering of the companies they are going to be owning through their funds.

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Deep Dive – November 2026 (Part 1)

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IMPORTANT – ANOUNCEMENT ABOUT ONGOING SERVICE – Feedback welcome

When I was working. I observed over many years that my male clients had usually become less mentally agile by the time they reached age 70. This was irrespective of whether or not they were retired or still working. The same was not true for the few women I dealt with as the principle money manager of the household.

On the odd ocasion where I hinted at that in discussion about financial planning, like recommending powers of attorney be put in place, my clients were often defensive and would adduce evidence as to why they were as sharp as ever! However, if their wives were present, they usually gave me a knowing look!

Some of my dear readers are well past 70 now and one or two have confessed that they are having a little trouble keeping up with technological matters or even being bothered to maintain portfolio records regularly. Sadly, a small number have now died.

When is too old to be useful?

Of course, generalisations are usually unfair on certain individuals and we are all different. I am offering my observations, not a medical thesis! I am certainly not saying that senility starts at age 70! Of course we have world leaders in their 80s, not that they are good evidence for the counter argument! Warren Buffet went on into his 80s, but he was leading a huge organisation with every kind of support, and there is some suggestion that even he was ‘losing the plot’.

Whatever you think, I can speak for one person with absolute certaintly – myself. Apart from suffering from all the usual co-morbidity conditions, I have neuro-muscular disaease at a level that imposes some incovenience and recently resulted in a short hospitalisation. I believe that my mental acuity is still fine (but then I would, wouldn’t I?) and my ability to anticipate stock market events and see inflection points is the most developed it has ever been.

Having said that I think I am still sharp on my home subject, I would readily admit that these days I either cannot, or can’t be bothered to, understand new complex concepts. I would maybe opt for an easy option now where as in the past I might have been pedantically obsessive on getting the ‘right’ solution.

My mental acuity is also not much use to you unless it can be communicated and for the reasons stated, plus early signs of pretty standard eyesight issues like cataracts, sitting at a PC writing for long periods is now not really desireable – I have to work in shorter sessions and build up longer articles. I use very large screens which helps a good deal, but typo rates have gone up, so more time in correcting, as far as possible, is required. I am not going to let AI do my writing, although it is useful in providing some content.

I always intended to continue offering my blog and general educational services until age 70, which will be in May next year. So it is now time to address the future service levels and I gave notice that I would be doing that a year ago.

However, this is not an announcement that I am moving into full pipe and slippers mode!

I would welcome your feedback on the future of NotHarry, but I get the feeling that most if not all my subscribers want me to continue at some level.

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A little foresight?

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Back in March 2025, when I was experimenting with ChatGPT and other AI systems, I wrote a longish article (Deep Dive – March 2025) attempting to anticipate, or at least explore, some of the implications of AI for investors, at a very general level.

Today’s financial news prompted me to recall that I wrote the following:

“The point here is that I have bypassed all of Google’s advertising! This hints at a significant devaluation in the shares of companies like Google and Meta whose main revenues are from advertising. One begins to appreciate why Microsoft has put so much money into this new way of using the internet.”

At the time, this was an observation about a possible consequence of AI rather than a fully developed investment thesis. But the underlying idea was that AI could do more than introduce a new technology: it would change the way people access the internet, undermining some of the economics of the existing advertising model.

Feeling a bit cocky!

Now consider the financial news of this week.

Google’s parent, Alphabet, has seen its share price tank after it reported slower-than-expected growth in search revenue while spending enormous sums on AI infrastructure. Investors have become increasingly concerned about the cash required to fund that investment and the possibility that AI is taking business away from conventional search. Microsoft, by contrast, has demonstrated strong growth in its Azure cloud business and generated substantial free cash flow despite its own heavy investment. Meta, meanwhile, whose advertising is not so dirrectly related to Interenet searches reports that its advertising business remains robust, but the cost of its AI ambitions is becoming an increasingly important consideration for investors.

The market is now grappling with precisely the sort of questions I was raising eighteen months earlier.

To be clear, I did not predict the timing of a share-price fall, identify its eventual scale or establish that Google and Meta were certain to be long-term losers. Nor did I foresee all the complications of the AI investment boom and I was very clear in the text that I was attempting a technical analysis of a major and rapidly evolving step-change in technology. I did not, in any way, work out that there would be a bubble in chip maker share prices resulting from data centre build out.

But I think the original observation deserves some credit. I deduced that if AI could answer questions directly, bypassing the conventional search process, the consequences for then current advertising markets did not look positive for Google.

I suggested that this was an issue that could reach into the economics and valuations of some of the world’s largest businesses. Incidentally, again taking note of news about job losses announced at Microsoft this week, I had also commented with some accuracy on the prospects for employment in certain businesses.

Of course, fund investors do not pick stocks and we can only hope that our fund managers also stay ahead when technology is changing rapidly. The well known technology fund manager Ben Rogoff once said at a conference I was attending that a good technology fund manager is always aware not just of what IS happening in the world of technology but what is ABOUT to happen!

Deep Dive – October 2026

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Indian Summer?

Many commentators on global markets and many investors are anticipating a major correction in equity markets and the risk factors do indeed continue to pile up. I am sure readers will have taken actions to mitigate risks and can sit calmly through any market turbulence, but if your strategy has involved banking profits to cash, what will you do with the available liquidity when we can say with some confidence that valuations are again attractive?

Obviously, while we are still ahead of any market crash, we can only speculate about where the best bargain prices might eventually emerge. In the meantime, I have been thinking about asset allocations calls on a geographical or regional basis and over a period it has occured to me that the Indian economy currently exhibits some characteristics that are similar to those prevailing in the USA before WW2, after which that economy boomed.

In this article I will explore the merits and limitations of such a proposition and help you to conclude whether or not an investment in India should be part of your new asset allocation in the near future.

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Mid-month Musings – September 2026

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Trumping around

Someone suggested recently that I had not yet commented on the latest spoutings of the orange half-wit whom the Americans have installed as their President. It is true that although I share the view of most serious commentators that his actions, as opposed to what he posts in the small hours on Truth Social or improvises on Fox News, are a potential threat to our well being, not just as investors, I do limit my comments in blogs to what are realistically likely economic impacts that are furthermore going to change the future direction of stock market valuations.

To be honest, those who choose to react to Trump’s latest, usually overnight, ramblings have to post blogs or videos daily or even more often. Investment planning cannot be undertaken on the basis of daily reviews, so apart from the exceptionally hazardous decisions, (see later about wars) my comments are always going to be based on observations about how markets have repositioned or are likely to over the medium to long term.

For example, his offer to give all American citizens a relatively insulting sum (one ninth of his Christmas present to his personal staff) to vote Republican (I have cut out the flim flam waffle that tries to explain it is not a bribe) has not been taken seriously by markets. Serious commentators are much more interested in Scott Bessent’s chest puffing and the implied suggestion that markets are welcome to take him on. If they do, he will go the way of Kwasi Kwarteng.

As Mark Malek of Wall Street Truthbombs (see reference below) promptly explained, if the US State was indebted by a further trillion dollars or so to fund Trump’s votes for cash offer, the negative impact on the prospects for interest rates, inflation and so on would likely result in costs that exceed the value of the handout for the average citizen with a mortgage, car finance and a wallet of credit cards.

Don’t get me started on Trump!

As a general rule, political shenanigans even on a global scale, are not a factor that will influence stock market direction. Politicians are in the main transitory and in the West, we can assume markets will run on indefinitely.

Of course, the impact of applied political decisions (many political spoutings never actually turn into reality, as we know) can have dramatic effects, like the Bolshevic Revolution at the extreme, or the ending of concensus politics in favour of neo-liberalism (particularly in the USA) which I would place as happening in the early 1980s. Even the latter only had impact that emerged over the longer term, but, for example, there can be no doubt that the ‘Big Bang’ kicked off an era where investors like you and me could more easily participate in markets.

The by-products of political decisons are sometimes dramatic nonetheless, most notably when the decision is to go to war. When Netanyahu persuaded Trump to attack Iran, the former likely knew the economic impacts that would follow as did Trump’s more intelligent advisers.

Unfortunately, the President and his cabal of no-hopers that make up the cabinet in the USA either did not see the impact, or minimised it because they wanted the invasion for political reasons. Bond markets have now priced in the consequences and it is more than likely that equity markets will follow soon – as outlined in more detail in my longer piece at the start of this month.

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