Economics
Deep Dive – October 2026
Indian Summer?
Many commentators on global markets and many investors are anticipating a major correction in equity markets and the risk factors do indeed continue to pile up. I am sure readers will have taken actions to mitigate risks and can sit calmly through any market turbulence, but if your strategy has involved banking profits to cash, what will you do with the available liquidity when we can say with some confidence that valuations are again attractive?
Obviously, while we are still ahead of any market crash, we can only speculate about where the best bargain prices might eventually emerge. In the meantime, I have been thinking about asset allocations calls on a geographical or regional basis and over a period it has occured to me that the Indian economy currently exhibits some characteristics that are similar to those prevailing in the USA before WW2, after which that economy boomed.
In this article I will explore the merits and limitations of such a proposition and help you to conclude whether or not an investment in India should be part of your new asset allocation in the near future.
Deep Dive – September 2026
(about 2500 words, 13 minutes or less estimated read time)
I have commented before that September and October are statistically volatile months for equity market investors, so I thought you might want to have some prompts looking at the risks and opportunities that are present or on the horizon as we head into Autumn. The next few headings cover a few of topics that have been worrying me, so to be honest I am not going to be dwelling much on opportunities!
Mid Month Musings – Snippets
Deep Dive – May 2026
In this article, published slightly early as the facts change so quickly that it might be stale in a few days, I want to follow up on my April mid-month post comment stating that I believe that whatever behavioural factors are driving stock market valuations, in the end fundamental factors will serve to restore prices to levels that make sense in an investment world where owning one sort of asset is always at the opportunity cost of owning another with different risk and return characteristics. In other words, an overvalued asset class will always eventually be sold off to buy into a cheaper one – we just don’t know when that will happen.
What I thought might be useful would be to list out some of the fundamental data that suggest that equity markets have become detached from reality. You can make a judgment as to what, taken all together, this information implies for the immediate future and whether or not those implications would prompt action on your part to defend or enhance your personal wealth.
Caution – potential ‘Black Swan’
Possibly only visible to a skilled ornithologist with the best of binoculars, there is not so far offshore a black swan detected.
To cut to the chase, as they say (although I personally deplore the hunting of birds), the potential significant, even catastrophic risk for investors is changes in the Japanese bond market.