Here are a few curiosities that have come my way in the last few days, in a condensed form and the selection based on my assessment as to their significance. I think we will be talking more on all these points in the future:
Economics
Deep Dive – May 2025
Trump 2 – 100 days and a little more clarity
I would not normally expect to be writing this monthly piece as an ongoing running commentary on a single macro economic factor, but the impact of Trump’s presidency on the global economy and investment markets and therefore on our personal wealth is so dramatic and directly relevant that I expect that you would welcome a reasoned opinion on the implications of where we are now, just over 3 months into this global (insert expletive of your choice here).
After the first false dawn, when markets (especially in the USA) were assuming that reduced regulation and a more business climate friendly environment would allow already over valued equities to continue marching upwards, the reality of tariffs calculated by a methodology that was so primitive it was genuinely beyond belief, flip flopping on that and all the rest you know about, has all served to create a climate of uncertainty and what’s more, direct and immediate practical consequences including a supply shock for goods coming out of China. Trump’s 100 day speech, reported the day I publish this article, is said to be full of falsehoods and more of the same bombast.
YAP – Snippets
Here are some of the most interesting points I gleaned from a Morningstar presentation last week, taking a look at prospects for European markets in the second quarter. Although the focus was Europe, the head of global equity strategy was on the call, so the macroeconomic content of the call was actually quite broad.
Naturally the message running through all the commentary was, stick of rock like, Trump’s tariffs. I actually thought it was quite bold of Morningstar (MS) to even offer a forward-looking commentary, and the European lead had to admit that he had needed to redo several of his charts in the days approaching the call, which was at the end of last week, and by today had already been overtaken to a certain extent by further vague prognostications from members of the US administration.
Deep Dive – April 2025
Trump 2 – what we know so far and the implications for investors
My more diligent subscribers may have noticed a pause in my Your Attention Please (YAP) posts which was partly because I was on holiday (in England) for a week and partly because the current situation demands a more in-depth commentary.
I would not usually write this monthly longer missive as a commentary on recent market returns or the evolving ‘macro’ background, but my take on the current state of affairs is that the impact of the bizarre behaviour of the incumbent of the White House is so significant in terms of the ongoing assessment of the market valuation of investment assets, that a calm, logical, albeit personally biased review of what has happened so far could be very useful to my readers. I think readers pay me for an opinion and observations, not just to report data!
YAP – Boomerang Economics?
The last few weeks have certainly been tumultuous in terms of utterances from the USA’s leadership and global reaction to that.
One thing that I have noticed is that the announcements from the Trump camp seem to have achieved something quite unexpected (although perhaps not so surprising with hindsight). There has been a complete rotation, still ongoing, in investors’ valuations of global stock markets by region. Look at this data:
Deep Dive – February 2025
Trump 2 – a different and personal take on the implications
So far…
At this early stage of the new US President’s term of office, it is not possible to make any reliable predictions about the global macro economic impact beyond examining the potential threats, which I have already done in a number of ways, as have many, many other commentators.
I will this month offer what is absolutely only an opinion, based on my personal view of the world, so this piece is not claimed to be educational. Feel free to disagree with me: I will be satisfied if I have prompted you to think about the situation in a new way or added an angle to your existing assessment.