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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Mark Potter

YAP – should we be afraid?

7th January 2025 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Here is a ‘factoid’ from the investment trade press, commenting on AI applications:

A good example is a recently released AI product called Draft One, developed by Axon in the US. The company, previously known as TASER International after its initial product line, produces equipment used by law enforcement agencies in particular. From Tasers, it diversified into cameras and now offers bodycams, dashcams and software.
Draft One is a multimodal AI tool, meaning it can interpret words, audio and video, that can automatically generate a police report from the footage captured by an officer’s bodycam. On returning to their station, Draft One will have already drafted the vast majority of an incident report, maybe even capturing information that would otherwise have been omitted. The officer is then simply required to complete and verify the report. From field trials in the US, the product has delivered an 82% reduction in the time taken to write reports.2

Citywire Infocus

Some years ago, before AI was ‘a word in common parlance’, as lawyers like to say, the famous economics and finance professor, Dr Robert Schiller was explaining how ‘sell side’ stock brokers had learned about algorithms being used by investment researchers to glean data from mass media coverage of companies. In those days, it might have been as simple as the number of times a name was searched on Google, or scanned by Google’s ‘spider’ when collecting the data it used for searches (and we now know, rather more).

The more I read about AI, the more I want to weep.

He explained that those responsible for promoting shares (as I have explained to readers taking my investment training, shares are sold much like health food supplements) would make up superfluous press releases containing words that they expected to be searched for in the research algorithms. By that means, they increased the odds of getting their company reported to the researchers who might make it a buy recommendation. A sort of FOMO stimulus.

This produced some very amusing results on occasions, like when there was a sudden tick up in interest in the shares of Jupter Investment Management, then run by Edward Bonham-Carter. It turned out that his sister Helena was up for an acting award, but the algorithm was only set up to look for the surname, so her media coverage was assumed to represent a surge of interest in Jupiter shares!

Even simple Search Engine Optimisation (SEO), or YouTube video listing work is a form of the same process of trying to find out what feeds an algorithm and then stuffing the inputs to get a given result.

It will not be long, I anticipate with my usual sad but experienced view of humanity, before the police are pointing their body cams at just what they need to get the report written to tell the story the way they want it told. You know, officer out of shot puts the gun in the hand of the dead black guy, raising it in an aggresssive pose, then another officer turns to get a bodycam image? I hope I am wrong.

Filed Under: News, Opinion, Rants

YAP – 2025 as seen from New York

6th January 2025 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I receive a daily news feed on markets from the Dealbook team at the New York Times. I find this useful as we all know that what happens in the US stock markets is highly relevant data in interpreting the global macro-economic climate and overall financial risk.

The New York team leader Andrew Ross Sorkin recently published his thoughts on what might happen in 2025. Now pundits there are a plenty, but this author has contacts at the very highest levels of US business, so you might be interested in his thoughts as context. I have picked the points I thought most relevant to UK-based retail investors. My own touch of flavour is added.

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Opinion, Politics

Deep Dive – January 2025

2nd January 2025 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Fixed Income – a refresher

This article is designed to satisfy a couple of subscriber requests to offer more core information about fixed income investing.

The asset class that comprises Gilts, Treasuries, Eurobonds, corporate bonds, elements of bank capital, assorted ‘notes’, private credit and the like has been an important investment opportunity for centuries but most beginner investors will, at best, have as their only acquired knowledge of the fixed income market some knowledge of National Savings Certificates.

I freely admit that it took me several years of day-to-day involvement in investment markets as an adviser to feel intuitively comfortable thinking about fixed income (henceforth interchangeably called ‘bonds’  as well, although bonds is a looser term).  That was the case even though I had formal training in corporate finance as a Chartered Secretary and had experience of over a decade working for a mortgage bank.  It’s not a subject that one can skim over and grasp.

I have procrastinated about writing this sort of article until now as even an introduction or refresher requires quite a lot of words.  I hope what follows is digestible and useful.

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Basics, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

YAP – new video

18th December 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Below is a link to a new video in which I comment on the implications of Trump 2.0 as far as they can be judged at this early stage. My comments are partly based on a recent webinar given by Steve Bell, the Chief Economist (EMEA) for CT.

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Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Politics

YAP – an SDR Fixed Income fund for investors with sustainability priorities?

17th December 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Here is some news that will interest those readers who filter their fund selections with sustainability as a key factor. Of course, this is not a recommendation and all the usual research would be sensible if you like the idea. I paste below what was in one of my trade papers and is likely a press release text.

“EdenTree Investment Management’s Global Impact Bond fund has become the first fixed income strategy to publicly disclose it will be adopting the ‘Sustainability Impact’ label under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Sustainability Disclosure Requirements (SDR).

The label will be adopted from 3 February 2025, making the portfolio the third fund in EdenTree’s suite to adopt a label, after the EdenTree Green Future and EdenTree Green Infrastructure mandates recently revealed they will be using the Sustainability Impact label as well. 

This means that EdenTree has now adopted an SDR label across three major asset classes: equities, listed infrastructure and fixed income. “

Filed Under: Uncategorised

YAP – global macro update at the year end

12th December 2024 by Mark Potter 2 Comments

I listened to a presentation by Steve Bell, chief European economist at CT (the fund manager formerly known as Columbia Threadneedle) earlier this week. His mandate was to summarise the main economic facts of 2024 and take some preliminary guesses at what might happen in 2025. I use the word ‘guesses’ because he will make another presentation next month when he will likely offer more evidence-based predictions.

Steve is a man of considerable experience (as we old guys like to describe being a boomer) and has a good track record on getting at least most of his short-term predictions right, which for an economist is indeed noteworthy!

Here you go – the facts

There was a huge amount of data in his 45-minute talk and I will make a video to give you my take on the elements that amount to interpretation and speculation/prediction. Meanwhile, for those of my readers who like cold facts in writing, here are some highlights. Note that this was a review for North America, Europe and the UK, without any detailed focus on the Asia Pacific region.

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Filed Under: Economics, Education, Members Only, Monthly commentary

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