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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Mark Potter

Monday Mash Up 001

9th September 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This is a new idea, with me posting snippets of news that I have picked up in my skimming, or even deep reading of the vast amount if financial information I see every week. The selection is based on what I think might be useful to my subscribers but access will not be restricted.

I don’t promise to write every Monday, or even to always publish on Monday! But this will be a regular feature.

Premier and Miton to Merge

These are 2 medium sized investment houses, both of which have already absorbed smaller boutique investments houses in the past. Both have allowed individual managers to run funds with unusual specialisms (eg Premier Defensive). Miton have been using external Authorised Corporate Directors (which is why there have been varying initials in front of their name) so one would imagine there will be some economies of scale.

Fund manager mergers almost always see someone or some people’s noses put out of joint and some job losses as similar funds are merged, so if you own a Premier or Miton fund, you need to see if there are any changes later. Overall, I would personally see the merger as positive, creating a more effective market player.

An index for Trump!

I have written about the way President Trump’s tweets make global stock markets move and even said, slightly tongue in cheek, that one could develop a trading pattern to make money on the resulting short term volatility. Now JP Morgan are devising a specific volatility index (Volfefe) to measure this effect, presumably so an exchange traded product can be constructed to invest in the potential!

Brexit and markets

There has been a clear assessment in both currency and equity markets that a no deal Brexit (NDB) is less likely following the rather fractious political events of the last few days. Of course, this is just a short term change in sentiment. Improved UK growth figures just published should not be seen as telling us anything, given that another burst of stock building was likely as the October 31st deadline sunk in.

It pays to remember that no Brexit at all is highly unlikely (sorry Remainers, I am one of you), so even if a deal is done the UK and European economies will be subject to not altogether predictable stresses.

Anti-Trust

No, not more about Trump or Brexit, but about the US legislation, developed to control the appalling monopolistic practices of the US corporate rogues in the oil industry originally and later applied to the Bell telephone business and in my time at college, IBM.

I have said before that it was fortunate for the huge tech companies, some of which are clearly monopolistic and adopting unfair trading practices to eliminate competitors, that under President Trump the public protection agencies of the US government were getting their teeth gradually knocked out! The tech barons may have seen control of the media as giving them a better chance of keeping public opinion on their side, but as we know, dear Donald is best mates with an old fashioned media mogul and propaganda pirate, Rupert Murdoch. So he actually dislikes the media organisations owned by the tech outfits.

Perhaps it is not surprising to now read that the anti-trust machinery is being wound up to have a go at the likes of Facebook and Alphabet (Google). This will in time impact on their share prices and given that big corporate break up sometimes release large amounts of extra value, the outcome could actually be positive. Innovation and tech fund managers will be paying close attention, we hope.

Filed Under: Announcements

September 2019

2nd September 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

As we get to the end of a stock market ‘season’ – the Summer quarter – I thought it would be useful to look back and see what has happened in the last year or so. 

I usually see no merit in reeling off a lot of numbers telling you how much each market moved last month, quarter or even year. 

What I think will be interesting is to see to what extent markets have ‘priced in’ the risks we have known about for most this year (Brexit, tariff wars and slowdown in Germany, for example) and to try and work out if markets, like the British public have got overly used to the never ending political uncertainties. 

If markets are just taking the risks as ‘baked in’ then we might have to worry about that.

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Filed Under: Portfolios, Trading, Uncategorised

If you smell a (dead) rat, there usually is a dead rat.

21st August 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I have twice in my life owned thatched cottages. They look great, are well insulated and a bit quirky. But the roofs are teaming with wildlife, especially rodents.

Now if the sound of mice and rats running around on your bedroom ceiling starts to get to you, you turn to methods of elimination, or to be realistic, suppression. That usually involves poisons and the problem with a poisoned rat is that it dies slowly and it can crawl up and die in your roof. That is a sort of revenge, post mortem. You will know the dead rat is there, pretty soon. The appalling smell will tell you. How long it takes you to find the corpse will be a variable.

What my repeated experience of this aspect of country life told me was that if you think you smell a dead rat, there always is a dead rat.

I make this point because sometimes I come across an investment in someone’s portfolio that looks to be too good to be true. I investigate it in the way I suggest everyone does in my article on screening for funds – using Google and reading everything you can find that cross references the fund, the management group and the manager.

Sometimes, there are hints of unusual investment strategies, assets that can’t easily be valued and ‘charismatic’ personalities. These are for me rat-like odours.

I recently checked out a bond fund run by a London based asset management company that has not been around that long. The fund had delivered exceptionally good results. The fund management house is associated with a large French bank, so looks solid.

The problem is that the management group seems to like investing in private loans to the businesses of effectively just one individual, who has a far from pristine track record for paying the money back. Furthermore, the fund manager and this person seem to have a close personal relationship.

On top of that, it is accepted that these private debt assets are illiquid and that their value is somewhat ‘notional’. The fund has been closely scrutinised by an experienced financial journalist, prompting a defence pointing out that it has plenty of more conventional liquid assets and no plans to restrict withdrawals.

I think the smell is too strong for me to be tempted by the remarkable returns and awards cabinet of the fund manager. I may be completely wrong, but investing here is one risk I would not be taking.

Filed Under: Funds

The last DJ?

19th August 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Readers know about my interest in gardening and may have noticed the odd reference to classic literature in my posts once in a while, but I can’t recall referencing my huge enthusiasm for music, especially from the 60s-80s (my extended ‘yoof’).

Here then is first – more making a point than a real rant!

Recent discussions I have been having with a couple people who have noticed their IFA doing less work and then wanting to shove their money into portfolios managed by someone else made me think people might be amused, even disturbed to listen to the song “The Last DJ’ by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers (2002).

Google or YouTube it and listen to the lyrics.

A song about radio – and about public service everywhere.

Filed Under: Rants

Interested in interest?

15th August 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Short term stock market movements are often best ignored as when we look back over longer period of time, even weekly or monthly changes only show as little undulations in the long term trend.

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only

Dumb and Dumber

5th August 2019 by Mark Potter 1 Comment

If you stand on a level crossing and you think you can hear a train coming, you might move off. If you can actually see a train coming, you would be a fool not to move off. If you see trains coming from both directions, you need to get moving immediately.

This idea came to me as I read back through my posts of the last 16 months, since the site went live. 2 themes come up again and again: Brexit (of course) and the US President’s enthusiasm for trade tariffs. These are the 2 trains heading inexorably towards our portfolio valuations. For once we might have a market setback with 2 co-incidental causes. Two political choices that may seem pretty dumb with hindsight.

Reader’s know where we are with Brexit. So this time I am passing on that topic. It keeps my blood pressure down.

Time to get out of the way?

This post is intended to draw your attention to the now noted heavy down valuation of the the Chinese currency (renminbi/yuan) against the US dollar. This is the not altogether unexpected way in which they have dealt with US tariffs. They naturally get less dollars for their goods but as they own plenty of US Treasuries (now worth more in local currency) there is at least for them some sure fire hedging.

What this means is that US consumers may not have seen much of a price rise but are just paying more tax (not that they will understand that, I fear). Chinese imports to the US have not fallen, but US exports to China have (now more expensive by a double hit, currency and retaliatory tariffs) and I have read of some severe stress in parts of the US agriculture sector.

That means President Trump may lose votes rather than gain them, but that is not my concern.

This situation has some similarities with the 1997/98 Asian Tiger crash that spread to impact the global economy. In 1994, China devalued heavily to undercut prices in the economies of its Pacific neighbours and that was the key factor in destroying their fragile economies, whose debt was linked to the US dollar. Once their currencies (starting with the Thai Baht) devalued away from the greenback, almighty recessions followed.

There are not exact parallels, but the impact of Chinese goods becoming cheaper will not only be felt in the USA – something I pointed out a long time ago. And more than that – competeing with the Chinese will be more difficult for everyone. That is a parallel.

So, I hear the 2 rumbles that have been building over the last 18 months getting louder. Time to take evasive action? I am.

Filed Under: Economics, Markets

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