With Donald Trump and his Republican loyalists continuing to swing a wrecking ball at the US economy, of course with implications for the rest of the world, the UK struggling with inflation and a public debt crisis, France being France when it comes to worker behaviour and very little good news elsewhere in Europe, unless you make military equipment, It is astonishing that global equity markets are riding high. The Far East maybe has no new problems but the medium term implications of Trump tariffs and some major repositioning of supply chain policy by really big industrial nations are not yet fully understood
Of course, the markets are not the economy and vice versa and it looks like bond markets are expecting interest rate cuts in the USA, plus Gold is valued very highly, suggesting that at least some market participants are exiting equities, or more generally, people with money are very nervous. Indeed, I read that there is evidence of retail investor selling at noticeably higher than usual levels. I have personally made my own microscopic contribution to that trend.
This market context is very hazardous with a systemic correction being very likely, as I have written before. It just needs a trigger that creates an instantaneous inflexion point and Trump and his team of economic half-wits seem to be trying hard to find that trigger.
Against this background, I planned to write useful checklist, cross-referencing selected guidance I have written previously, so that readers can make sure they are as prepared as possible for any eventually. I had even written some notes with the basic content.
However, on October 1st, I moved to new flat and ahead of that relocated my ‘office’ (really just the place my PC, printer and supporting tools live). The move has taken up all my time and also resulted in my, temporarily (I hope), misplacing a few things, including my October Deep Dive notes!
I must therefore apologise and ask you to wait a few days until I get properly organised again and can write and publish the full piece. Please email me if you have any burning questions!
