Below is a link to a new video in which I comment on the implications of Trump 2.0 as far as they can be judged at this early stage. My comments are partly based on a recent webinar given by Steve Bell, the Chief Economist (EMEA) for CT.
Education
YAP – global macro update at the year end
I listened to a presentation by Steve Bell, chief European economist at CT (the fund manager formerly known as Columbia Threadneedle) earlier this week. His mandate was to summarise the main economic facts of 2024 and take some preliminary guesses at what might happen in 2025. I use the word ‘guesses’ because he will make another presentation next month when he will likely offer more evidence-based predictions.
Steve is a man of considerable experience (as we old guys like to describe being a boomer) and has a good track record on getting at least most of his short-term predictions right, which for an economist is indeed noteworthy!
There was a huge amount of data in his 45-minute talk and I will make a video to give you my take on the elements that amount to interpretation and speculation/prediction. Meanwhile, for those of my readers who like cold facts in writing, here are some highlights. Note that this was a review for North America, Europe and the UK, without any detailed focus on the Asia Pacific region.
Deep Dive – December 2024
An asset class with Trump 2 era attractions?
Having had no feedback in response to my two-part dissertation on the importance of keeping an eye on high level asset mixes and how that might be achieved, I conclude that either the topic was too complicated, or more likely, my readers ‘get it’ and will be keeping a weather eye on relevant news and its implications.
A key function of my blog posts is to help you sort the wheat from the chaff and this month I will address a topic that I am sure I will have to keep front and centre for some time: Trump 2. Although the implications of the Trump second term could well be very serious indeed, it has yet to start, so all investors can do is read the early signs and think about what they might do to mitigate the potential new risks, and those are plentiful, as I have already outlined.
YAP – reasons to be pessimistic (part 2)
I feel that over the last 2 or 3 years, it has been tempting to assess future investment market direction mono-thematically. First markets moved on the almost daily take on what the Fed was going to do next; then it was the latest announcements about money pouring into AI development and now of course it is the latest hints/evidence as to how a Trump administration will work and the impact on global trade, the US economy and for that matter security in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the South China Sea.
Y(our) A(attention) P(lease) – reasons to be pessimistic: 1-2-3
The likely economic implications of Trump’s second presidency are getting a thorough airing everywhere, so I thought readers might like my snapshot of the prospecs at this early stage. Bear in mind that power does not actually change hands until late January.
There are 3 worrying possibilities:
YAP – Snippets
President Trump
I summarise below (next heading) the main points from a useful Morningstar webinar on the impact of the US election for European investors, presented ahead of the result but assuming a Trump win (it was from their Irish based European markets specialist).
I have been interested to see what the main UK and US media economics and finance commentators are already saying, relative to the factors I listed in the third, most speculative strategy review example I gave in my November Deep Dive.