Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Education

YAP – Dirty old men

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We are currently living through one of those periods when geo-political risk is far and away the factor most likely to influence our financial well-being.

It is generally true that markets are not the economy and vice-versa and economic principals at a high level are somewhat insulated from political shenanigans, but at the moment we have a US president whose policies are so disturbing to investors that the US Dollar is under considerable pressure, which is definitely a relevant ‘macro’ issue for investors, and we have the war in Ukraine driving a sea change in military spending in Europe and the war in the Middle East (when is there not a war in the Middle East?) pushing up oil prices, both wars being factors investors need to count as relevant,

Thinking through the ultimate drivers of the rather disturbing global geo-political scenario, with the aim of predicting how much worse things will get before they get better (by better, I mean more predicable and stable), one cannot avoid thinking: Trump, Putin, Netanjahu, Khameinei. Today’s Guardian newspaper has a cartoon featuring these characters under the heading ‘Country for Old Men’, playing on the Coen brothers’ film of that name, based on Cormac McCarthy’s novel. I understand that the film revolves around money, is extremely violent and many innocent bystanders get killed. The protaganists are utterly ruthless and without symapathy. So the cartoonist’s satire seems highly appropriate.

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YAP – USA proposal to unilaterally raise extra taxes from overseas investors

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Sorry, there was no way I could make the title of this piece snappy!

The topic is perhaps one that will not be widely covered, if at all, in the mass media, but it is raising serious alarm bells in the investment industry outside of the USA, and may well have implications for American investors too, as I will explain.

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Deep Dive – June 2025

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A new investment opportunity, or snake oil salesmen?

This month I want to offer a primer on the topic of what are loosely called ‘private equity’ and ‘private credit’. 

These terms describe rather generally forms of investment that do not fit easily within the framework of existing UK legislation and regulation for retail investors but which forms of investment are currently available to retail investors indirectly, by being included in the assets of products we recognise like pension funds and investment trusts, and which may become more widely available in the near future..

A new opportunity, but is it any good?

There is definitely something building by way of a story or even a campaign, with vested interests acting a cheerleaders, which narrative might be summarised as suggesting that this form of asset is the new ‘next great opportunity’ and retail investors ought not to be locked out of such a great opportunity by the ‘nanny state’.

As an indication of how the subject is highly topical, especially in the USA, I would refer you to a very recent comment from a Goldman Sachs AM spokesman saying that he could “even see a world where we stop using the phrase public and private; we just say great companies or great credit”.

Now that sounds like a salesman pushing a new product line to the sceptic in me.   Such is the general tone of the trade media coverage I am seeing.

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YAP – False optimism?

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Markets in the developed world seems to have taken the announced pause on the Liberation Day tariffs as suggesting that the more market friendly component of Trump’s acolytes has got the upper hand and the pro-tariff lobby has been banished to the broom cupboard (to paraphrase the FT).

I think it is perfectly normal for markets to react positively to good news, even if it is only a deferment of bad news. However, such rallies usually end when the researchers and strategists get round to looking at what risks still remain. And there is a really big one, one that is more a dinosaur than an elephant in the room.

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YAP – sale of the century?

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I recently watched a webinar from Columbia Threadneedle, the main purpose of which was to promote their UK Equity Income skills, a market segment where the firm has always had a decent reputation with advisers. Columbia is the US based owner but Threadneedle has been around right back into my childhood when my father worked for the then privately owned insurer Eagle Star and Threadneedle was its investment management arm. It went through ownership by British American FS, Allied Dunbar and then Zurich before ending up with Columbia.

The webinar was presented by Jeremy Smith and Dominic Younger and a fair part of it explained their investment philosophy and process which is very much ‘bottom up’. They listed a number of holdings and I was broadly impressed, but this note is not about their fund.

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