Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Portfolios

Snippets – a foggy Autumn

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All quiet on the Notharry front?

My readers may have noticed less blog posts recently. This had been deliberate on my part, for several reasons:

  • I had a few conversations with subscribers in which they confessed to not having time to read a few of my recent scribblings, sometimes I suspect for quite a few weeks. That means one of two things: I am posting too often or what I post is not useful or interesting. Now I am fairly sure that aside from the odd rant or attempt at dry humour, what I write IS useful to retail investors, so with that possibly conceited analysis, I have decided to reduce my frequency of posting to an average one longer read at the start of each month and one or two topical pieces in between.

  • Secondly, there are not many fundamental topics that I have not covered already in several ways: maybe a permanent long technical article, some reminder posts with cross references and now even maybe a video. I am therefore reluctant to write or record a piece that is just an unwanted repetition. On the other hand, as you know, I am very willing to write a piece on a subject that a particular subscriber wants explained or for me to comment on. Just tell me what you need!

  • Finally, current market conditions are so weird, so febrile and so full of risk (which last point I have made repeatedly already), that it is difficult to offer any intelligent guidance on portfolio servicing or reshaping over and above the usual basic essentials of being diversified, managing cash flows and taking the long view.

Nonetheless, I have collected quite a few thoughts on what are relevant factors that you might benefit from thinking about, or trends that need keeping an eye on, enough to make up one of my occasional ‘mish-mash’ lists of unconnected (or are they?) subjects that now follows.

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September 2025 – Back to school!

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Introduction – Pick and Mix Revision

This month, I don’t have anything interesting to write about in the style of the Deep Dive longer articles that I usually start the month with, so I am allowing you a choice as to how much time you spend on your investment portfolio management education.  I thought it would be useful to offer what might be taken as a revision list or a prompt to put in place some processes that make sure you are continually and effectively on top of your portfolio. 

Because I have written and published on this web site a great deal of material and some very specific guidance on the various essential aspects of portfolio maintenance, much of what I would like you to review will be referenced by links to articles of various lengths.

You can decide exactly how much you want/need to take in as your personal refresher course and then reference the relevant articles, spreading the readings over a few sessions if you prefer.

Not everything that I currently think is important is already on record, so the second part of this month’s briefing does add some new suggestions.

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YAP – the great American giveaway

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I recently saw a notable video posted by an American specialist in international relations whose analysis I have noted as insightful and accurate over recent years (he is an associate professor at the University of Pittsburgh). In essence he made the point that Russia’s next, possibly already under way, ‘invasion’ will not be of the Baltic States, Finland, Georgia or Moldova but will come (has started?) in the form of hybrid warfare attacks on countries in NATO and the EU. Russia is in fact an extremely capable enemy when it comes to cyber warfare (one of the key elements of hybrid warfare), likely much better equipped relatively than it is with tanks and fighter jets these days.

One of the reasons for this is not widely known, I suspect, and I only became fully aware of it recently. This is the theft of an entire library of the most advanced hacking tools in the world from the US National Security Agency’s special projects department, a few years back. In fact, no deliberate theft actually happened. It was I believe more a case of access being left open by misbehaving employees and the automatic operation of anti-hacking tools that had roots in Russia stumbling on an open door.

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Snippets – ESG investing in the Asia Pacific region

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Having decided that I will be investing a lot less in US Dollar denominated assets as far back as November last year, for obvious reasons, I have raised cash by selling out of some global ESG focused funds, those with too much exposure to the Dollar in my view.

Most readers will know that I personally have believed in ethical investing for a very long time. I do not believe it is the way to make the most money, I should add, but equally those with specific conscientious objections to the grosser/less humane elements of global capitalism can still make good money. Naturally, I want to re-allocate my cash to the markets that I have already suggested in my blog posts are the ones that look more promising, being Europe (including the UK), especially smaller companies, and a return to the Asia Pacific region but keeping as light a weighting in China as possible.

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YAP – USA proposal to unilaterally raise extra taxes from overseas investors

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Sorry, there was no way I could make the title of this piece snappy!

The topic is perhaps one that will not be widely covered, if at all, in the mass media, but it is raising serious alarm bells in the investment industry outside of the USA, and may well have implications for American investors too, as I will explain.

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Deep Dive – June 2025

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A new investment opportunity, or snake oil salesmen?

This month I want to offer a primer on the topic of what are loosely called ‘private equity’ and ‘private credit’. 

These terms describe rather generally forms of investment that do not fit easily within the framework of existing UK legislation and regulation for retail investors but which forms of investment are currently available to retail investors indirectly, by being included in the assets of products we recognise like pension funds and investment trusts, and which may become more widely available in the near future..

A new opportunity, but is it any good?

There is definitely something building by way of a story or even a campaign, with vested interests acting a cheerleaders, which narrative might be summarised as suggesting that this form of asset is the new ‘next great opportunity’ and retail investors ought not to be locked out of such a great opportunity by the ‘nanny state’.

As an indication of how the subject is highly topical, especially in the USA, I would refer you to a very recent comment from a Goldman Sachs AM spokesman saying that he could “even see a world where we stop using the phrase public and private; we just say great companies or great credit”.

Now that sounds like a salesman pushing a new product line to the sceptic in me.   Such is the general tone of the trade media coverage I am seeing.

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