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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Funds

Watching Brief – August 2023

1st August 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

Past the worst?

Looking at my 3 personal portfolios (UK Sterling SIPP, UK Sterling collectives and Euro collectives) I note a noticeable flattening out of what had been a longish mostly downwards line on the valuation over time graph. 

In fact, July was a month of modest gains overall, with the best results in the Euro portfolio, suggesting that over the month Sterling may have appreciated a tad against the currencies underlying the largest holdings I have in my UK pots.

I reckon we are seeing the start of a turnaround….

I cannot of course guarantee it, but my feeling is that early Summer 2023 may be the inflection point when the bear market that started some time in late Autumn 2021 and which has had stuttering false recoveries comes to an end. 

There are plenty of predictions of better economic growth and ‘soft landings’ and unsurprisingly (at least to me), corporate profits are in the main on the up, thanks to the consumer being suckered with price increases, quietly approved of by governments and central banks whether justified or not!

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Asset Allocation, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Research tools

Watching Brief – June 2023

1st June 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

No result yet in the market tug of war

The market moves up and down at the moment as it reacts to conflicting data

As I started to write this month, at least one potential crisis had passed with an outcome that markets will find acceptable.  The US politicians have reached an agreement (subject to Congressional approval) on funding the US public debt for a full 2 years more.

Bad news is the fact that the war in Ukraine is building up to a critical point and we cannot know what the consequences will be.  Plus, a welter of news from China suggests that it has economic problems on a scale not anticipated and which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may have trouble managing.

The push me/pull you trading in markets that we have seen this year is further sustained by the news that recessions might be avoided in some developed markets (good) but that means interest rates will stay higher for longer (bad).

For once there is some genuinely good news about a major business, which will be owned by many funds popular with readers, doing exceptionally.  This is Nvidia, the tech company set to benefit hugely from the rush to invest in AI.  It is looking like another Tesla for the moment, which means it will likely end in tears, but we can hope our fund managers will ride the bandwagon and book some profits.

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Asset Allocation, Education, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios, Sustainability/ESG, Trading

Midweek Musings – the 2 most common investor errors

24th May 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Diversification – remember what that means.

All investors make mistakes, even those as famous as Warren Buffet or Terry Smith.

Purchasing investments is about applying general, sound principles that are rooted in the very essence of capitalism and diligent application of those principles and some common sense will always result in acceptable returns over the long run.

However, even though a diversified portfolio of quality funds will always make money long term (if it didn’t, capitalism would have failed too), we can all have components in our portfolios that we worry about, because they are not making money at the moment.

Furthermore, when we pick funds or shares, we are making a judgement based on logic and the data we have available. The facts can and do change or we may even have had incomplete data, or misunderstood its meaning, so we will (all of us) buy investments that are unsuitable when reviewed with that wonderful all-knowing review tool called hindsight.

I used to estimate that I would regret recommending one or two out of every ten funds I put in front of clients. Over the years, the error rate improved, but I still make mistakes now (eg backing fintech at the wrong point in the cycle).

Never forget that if a portfolio did not have any funds performing in a different way to the general market trend, by definition, it would not be diversified.

It would be unsusual, for example, for the large cap global growth funds in your portfolio to be doing well and at the same time to be raking it in on your defensive value funds. If the markets like Tesla and Netflix, they almost certainly don’t want to buy Nestle or Unilever (and vice versa). You might think that you can tactically switch between funds to be always in line with the relevant market factors and if you can do that well, I recommend that you start up your own investment blog!

Anyone out there want to let me fully retire to my slippers and hi-fi?

In reality, and I say this based on over 30 years of reviewing portfolios with investors, human nature means that nearly everyone, on scanning a list of owned funds with recent past performance numbers, will focus on the funds that are showing losses, generally without any reference to their portfolio weighting, when they were bought or what the difference is between performance over varying time periods.

Thinking about this calmly and objectively, we might be tempted into saying – ‘Oh, that’s not me – I take the long view and once I have understood why a fund is underperforming for now, I am chilled about it’.

I am sorry to say that my experience is that even if investors (and I include most IFAS in this analysis) would like to see themselves that way, almost everyone actually stresses out about the funds they own with red or negative numbers showing in their reports.

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Filed Under: Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios, Research tools

Midweek Musings – Jupiter’s sun sets?

19th April 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

An announcement that Jupiter was closing the Luxembourg arm of its Asian Income fund, a fund that has had great relative performance since it was launched specifically for Jason Pidcock (who came to Jupiter with a solid personal reputation as a sector specialist at Newton) is at first mystifying, given that the UK share class of the same fund appears to be well supported.

The PR explanation given is that the European market had not taken to the fund and the sub fund had raised less than £20 million. I would have thought that the offshore share class carried very little extra expenses other than those relating to the Luxembourg listing and compliance, but maybe there is more to it than that. The press release commentary published in my trade newsfeed could have been more appreciative of Jason’s excellent work for investors and his great judgement in minimising China exposure in the fund, which was why I have owned it for a while recently, and had previously made good money with it from launch before banking a profit.

There is no news that the UK fund will close and Trustnet lists it as holding over £1 billion in assets, so that seems unlikely on purely commercial grounds. On the other hand, my intuition is stirring up worries about what may be happening at Jupiter. A whole block of ESG focused managers left not long ago, even though Jupiter had a long history of running ecologically focused funds.

I think the relevant context is that the company has had a recent change of MD, has had its shares shorted by several hedge funds and is apparantly (according to The Times) at this moment the subject of ‘activist investor pressure’.

We can easily forget that many small and medium sized fund management groups are ordinary UK listed firms with the founding shareholders now owning only small percentages of shares and in many cases most of the free float of shares being in the hands of other competitor fund managers, or as in the case of Lindsell Train, for example, a big block of shares being owned by an associated Investment Trust which at least keeps control more or less with the founders and their allies.

This means that fund management firms can become takeover targets, be subject to short seller pressure and have boardroom bustups just like any other business.

The relative underperformance of the UK stock market over most of the last few years until 2022 and a weaker Sterling plus the glut of gloomy predictions for the UK economy (not really a connected factor, in truth) means that there are already plenty of vultures circling, mainly US based, to acquire and strip out cheap UK assets. This may be to our advanatge if we own UK smaller companies or special situations funds, because the managers of those funds know how the game is played and will be holding blocks of shares in takeover targets.

However, I am less happy about the situation at Jupiter in terms of staff morale and motivation. All of the above is hardly going to feel positive if you are long standing employee who was used to working for a friendly British firm that respected its staff and now the cold wind of US capitalism is whistling around your desk! I would take a modest bet that some of the better managers will jump before they are pushed.

In terms of fund research, I would suggest that Jupiter must now warrant at least an Amber light.

Filed Under: Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – UK market underpriced?

9th March 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

As markets swing around with the inconsistent pronouncements of central bankers who appear to have no idea what is driving inflation, what the next set of data will be, nor why trends are what they, we can only stick with fundamental facts in deciding on what assets to buy.

I have been talking positively about UK equities with subscribers over many months now because although the news media would have you believe that the UK economy is pants, with good reason, there are plenty of UK businesses that make good profits irrespective of what happens to UK GDP, how many refugees arrive on boats or which stock market a global company chooses to list its shares.

This quote from Allianz Global Investors (courtesy of Citywire) says it all:

I could not make the point any better than this quotation

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

Midweek Musings (plus Hit or Myth)

11th January 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Some confidence but not universal

We are now far enough into 2023 to get some idea of the market mood. It always takes a couple of weeks to see if the big players are pessimistic, raising cash and not adding to equity holdings, or nervous about missing out on a first half pick up in equity valuations and thereby blowing their bonus prospects.

This year, although there are many high profile commentators, including Terry Smith of Fundsmith, predicting a poor 2023 for a variety of reasons which are not all factual, I think that the fear of not being in the market is more powerful than a preference for cash with seriously negative real rates of return.

A curiosity has been a jump in the price of gold. I guess that this might be because it has become the next most interesting thing to speculate in for those mainly younger players who are now disillusioned with crypto.

It is still very early in the year and of course one cannot predict the impact of major events, some of which we will be surprised by, but I am at the moment feeling optimistic about equities and bonds, very negative about real estate, both commercial and residential,and generally pleased that equity markets are priced on more normal measures after a couple of years of folly.

Sunny times ahead?

I will comment on fixed income funds shortly as a number of my readers have been doing useful research into what you can find by way of funds in that asset class and after a period of owning not a single bond fund, I am moving some money into fixed income

Now I want to offer the second, late, part of my normal monthly output.

Hit or Myth

This time the claim is: Past performance is not a guide to the future

I can imagine you are thinking that this is a bit of a waste of time – regulators make sure you get told the above every time you buy any investment and I myself am always warning people off of using performance alone to pick funds or review recent portfolio performance.

So this is a hit – it must be true, surely?

In fact, if you apply an intelligent interpretation to the exact statement, it is in many ways a myth.

By one must qualify that contradiction by saying that past performance, when understood and used to understand a current valuation, may very often be a useful guide to the future.

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Filed Under: Education, Funds, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

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