I was re-reading the piece I wrote about the problems fund managers now have with market shorting strategies – https://www.itsnotharry.com/the-lies-have-it/ – which links well with what I wrote last week about ‘fake’. share valuations.
Members Only
Watching Brief – May 2020
Watching Brief – April 2020 (m)
Pottering About
I am conscious that the world is changing
fast in many ways as everyone tries to handle the Covid-19 crisis and its
implications at a rapid pace and so any analysis written once a month has a
very short ‘best before’ period!
But I suppose that some analysis, even if you disagree with it, is better than none at all, or a page of bland clichés such as I have seen issued by some advisors!
I have been issuing frequent blog posts reacting to news flow and introducing ideas that I believe are worth pondering on now as a preparation for future action.
When will markets hit the bottom? (m)
The facile answer to that is that we will only know after the event!
The message I want to convey today is that stock market values fall most dramatically when the cycle that precedes the fall was longest and had extended into ‘over valuation’. But that is not just because confidence is eroded and people start to think about investing on a valuation rather than a momentum basis.
Watching Brief – March 2020
Pottering About
Defenceless Markets?
I was surprised to see that I had already written about the implications of coronavirus a whole month ago. The dramatic market sell off we have seen in recent days reflects the fact that the spread is now accelerating, in terms of locations, even if the case numbers are increasing less in China.
I have commented on numerous occasions since I launched this web site almost 2 years ago that markets were taking a very optimistic view about profits growth and that the emergence of a significant negative factor that would threaten a global recession would see a dramatic set back.
Whilst it has been possible and indeed profitable to ‘ride’ the momentum a little since central banks did their about turn on interest rate policy about a year ago, the advent of an ‘unknown’ could be expected to force an eventual reality check.
New Real World article now live (m)
I have today finished and uploaded my thoughts on the subject of benchmarking for funds and portfolios, something that has popped up a couple of times in training sessions.
The subscriber only article is under the Real World menu https://www.itsnotharry.com/benchmarks-a-thorny-subject/
My experience is that investors think they ought to be looking at benchmarks but find the subject confusing and give up. That may not be a bad thing! I jest a little! Hopefully the article will throw some light on the subject. As always I am happy to give technical support to any subscriber who needs it.