Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

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Deep Dive – November 2025

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The death on investment funds – long live ETFs!

Around 7 or 8 years ago, during the period when I was working for Headley Financial Services (HFS) after they bought my business ahead of my retirement, I was asked as the most technically qualified member of their investment committee to research and write a report for the committee on the then relatively new asset type of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and their cousins (rarer) ETCs and ETPs.

I don’t have a copy of the report now but I can more or less recall what I concluded, which was that although the likes of Vanguard had succeeded in creating cheap funds that tracked the main widely used stock market indices (by an automatic process – so passively) the market in ETFs had even by then expanded to track all sorts of other indices, including ones made to order, generally but not always at quite low cost. 

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Snippets – a foggy Autumn

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All quiet on the Notharry front?

My readers may have noticed less blog posts recently. This had been deliberate on my part, for several reasons:

  • I had a few conversations with subscribers in which they confessed to not having time to read a few of my recent scribblings, sometimes I suspect for quite a few weeks. That means one of two things: I am posting too often or what I post is not useful or interesting. Now I am fairly sure that aside from the odd rant or attempt at dry humour, what I write IS useful to retail investors, so with that possibly conceited analysis, I have decided to reduce my frequency of posting to an average one longer read at the start of each month and one or two topical pieces in between.

  • Secondly, there are not many fundamental topics that I have not covered already in several ways: maybe a permanent long technical article, some reminder posts with cross references and now even maybe a video. I am therefore reluctant to write or record a piece that is just an unwanted repetition. On the other hand, as you know, I am very willing to write a piece on a subject that a particular subscriber wants explained or for me to comment on. Just tell me what you need!

  • Finally, current market conditions are so weird, so febrile and so full of risk (which last point I have made repeatedly already), that it is difficult to offer any intelligent guidance on portfolio servicing or reshaping over and above the usual basic essentials of being diversified, managing cash flows and taking the long view.

Nonetheless, I have collected quite a few thoughts on what are relevant factors that you might benefit from thinking about, or trends that need keeping an eye on, enough to make up one of my occasional ‘mish-mash’ lists of unconnected (or are they?) subjects that now follows.

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Deep Dive – October 2025

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When a cult rules millions

For most of my working life, I have been able to tell those who asked me that politics made not much immediate difference to investment markets.  Of course, where politicians make significant changes to macro-economic conditions (say Reagan and Thatcher in the ‘80s under the influence of the monetarists and market liberalists), there will be impacts over the medium to long term. 

However, as a rule markets have always taken the view that in the democratic ‘free’ world, politicians come and go and policies oscillate from a bit leftish to a bit rightish with the odd major annoying upset, like Brexit.

It is also widely understood that the most important capitalist economy, the USA, is really under the control of two main groups – a loose collective of shadowy billionaire oligarchs and the lobbying firms employed by the mega corporations.  This was explained to me when I was a teenager attending college to study business and as a Brit, I struggled to believe it, but now there is some evidence (especially during the Boris Johnson period) that the same sort of democratic corrosion is occurring in the UK.

Are politics really relevant for investors?

The people with the real power in the USA welcomed Trump’s re-election and the US equity market performed accordingly early this year.  Here was a man who was not very bright, had only made money with the help of Russian property developers or by blatantly disreputable behaviour, when left to his own devices went bankrupt over and over again, had an ego that forever needed massaging, and was utterly free of the ethics that most people think define Christian societies. 

In essence, they thought that they knew, as the KGB had discovered much earlier, that this was a man whom you could easily manipulate with a little forethought.

That was however their mistake. 

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YAP – (IMPORTANT) – a cautionary tale at a time of peak political risk for markets

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Below is CoPilot’s succinct summary of some recent economic history in Turkey:

When the Turkish government asserted greater control over the Central Bank—particularly under President Erdoğan’s leadership—it triggered a cascade of economic consequences that reshaped the country’s financial landscape:

📉 Unorthodox Monetary Policy

  • The government pushed a controversial belief that lower interest rates would reduce inflation, defying conventional economic wisdom.

  • Between late 2021 and early 2022, interest rates were slashed from 19% to 14%, despite rising inflation.

💸 Currency Collapse & Inflation Surge

  • The Turkish lira plummeted, losing over half its value in months—dropping from 8.30 to over 18.30 per USD.

  • Inflation skyrocketed, peaking above 80% by mid-2022, far exceeding the official targets.

🏦 Investor Confidence Eroded

  • The central bank’s perceived lack of independence led to capital flight and depleted reserves.

  • Political interference—especially after the arrest of opposition figures—further rattled markets.

🔄 Policy Reversal & Lingering Damage

  • After the 2023 elections, the government signaled a return to orthodox monetary policy, raising interest rates to 50% by early 2024.

  • Despite this, inflation remained stubbornly high at 37.9% as of April 2025, with expectations poorly anchored.

🧮 Manipulation Allegations

  • Critics accused the government of manipulating official inflation data to downplay the real cost of living.

In short, Turkey’s experiment with politicized central banking became a cautionary tale: when monetary policy is driven by political goals rather than economic fundamentals, the fallout can be swift and severe.

A repeat in the USA? This week?!

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At the Whiteboard – Assessing Fund Performance

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I noted when reading the material about portfolio reviews which I reminded you about at the start of the month that I had not, in fact, published a promised follow up with guidance on reviewing portfolio holdings that were not performing as expected.

I must get a pointer like that!

This is an important exercise but one that depends to a degree on experience and some applied knowledge of what actually influences portfolio outcomes. A comprehensive retelling of all the data I would want to look at and how I would interpret it all would make for a very long piece indeed. That was not what I promised!

I have instead made a 17 minute video that suggests one technique that allows one fund to be scored against another, the seond in effect serving as a benchmark. After all, if you sell out of a fund, then you usually want to invest in something else.

[Read more…] about At the Whiteboard – Assessing Fund Performance

September 2025 – Back to school!

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Introduction – Pick and Mix Revision

This month, I don’t have anything interesting to write about in the style of the Deep Dive longer articles that I usually start the month with, so I am allowing you a choice as to how much time you spend on your investment portfolio management education.  I thought it would be useful to offer what might be taken as a revision list or a prompt to put in place some processes that make sure you are continually and effectively on top of your portfolio. 

Because I have written and published on this web site a great deal of material and some very specific guidance on the various essential aspects of portfolio maintenance, much of what I would like you to review will be referenced by links to articles of various lengths.

You can decide exactly how much you want/need to take in as your personal refresher course and then reference the relevant articles, spreading the readings over a few sessions if you prefer.

Not everything that I currently think is important is already on record, so the second part of this month’s briefing does add some new suggestions.

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