Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

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Deep Dive – February 2025

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Trump 2 – a different and personal take on the implications

 So far…

At this early stage of the new US President’s term of office, it is not possible to make any reliable predictions about the global macro economic impact beyond examining the potential threats, which I have already done in a number of ways, as have many, many other commentators.

I will this month offer what is absolutely only an opinion, based on my personal view of the world, so this piece is not claimed to be educational.  Feel free to disagree with me: I will be satisfied if I have prompted you to think about the situation in a new way or added an angle to your existing assessment.

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YAP – 2025 as seen from New York

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I receive a daily news feed on markets from the Dealbook team at the New York Times. I find this useful as we all know that what happens in the US stock markets is highly relevant data in interpreting the global macro-economic climate and overall financial risk.

The New York team leader Andrew Ross Sorkin recently published his thoughts on what might happen in 2025. Now pundits there are a plenty, but this author has contacts at the very highest levels of US business, so you might be interested in his thoughts as context. I have picked the points I thought most relevant to UK-based retail investors. My own touch of flavour is added.

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Deep Dive – January 2025

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Fixed Income – a refresher

This article is designed to satisfy a couple of subscriber requests to offer more core information about fixed income investing.

The asset class that comprises Gilts, Treasuries, Eurobonds, corporate bonds, elements of bank capital, assorted ‘notes’, private credit and the like has been an important investment opportunity for centuries but most beginner investors will, at best, have as their only acquired knowledge of the fixed income market some knowledge of National Savings Certificates.

I freely admit that it took me several years of day-to-day involvement in investment markets as an adviser to feel intuitively comfortable thinking about fixed income (henceforth interchangeably called ‘bonds’  as well, although bonds is a looser term).  That was the case even though I had formal training in corporate finance as a Chartered Secretary and had experience of over a decade working for a mortgage bank.  It’s not a subject that one can skim over and grasp.

I have procrastinated about writing this sort of article until now as even an introduction or refresher requires quite a lot of words.  I hope what follows is digestible and useful.

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YAP – global macro update at the year end

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I listened to a presentation by Steve Bell, chief European economist at CT (the fund manager formerly known as Columbia Threadneedle) earlier this week. His mandate was to summarise the main economic facts of 2024 and take some preliminary guesses at what might happen in 2025. I use the word ‘guesses’ because he will make another presentation next month when he will likely offer more evidence-based predictions.

Steve is a man of considerable experience (as we old guys like to describe being a boomer) and has a good track record on getting at least most of his short-term predictions right, which for an economist is indeed noteworthy!

Here you go – the facts

There was a huge amount of data in his 45-minute talk and I will make a video to give you my take on the elements that amount to interpretation and speculation/prediction. Meanwhile, for those of my readers who like cold facts in writing, here are some highlights. Note that this was a review for North America, Europe and the UK, without any detailed focus on the Asia Pacific region.

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Deep Dive – December 2024

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An asset class with Trump 2 era attractions?

Having had no feedback in response to my two-part dissertation on the importance of keeping an eye on high level asset mixes and how that might be achieved, I conclude that either the topic was too complicated, or more likely, my readers ‘get it’ and will be keeping a weather eye on relevant news and its implications.

A key function of my blog posts is to help you sort the wheat from the chaff and this month I will address a topic that I am sure I will have to keep front and centre for some time: Trump 2. Although the implications of the Trump second term could well be very serious indeed, it has yet to start, so all investors can do is read the early signs and think about what they might do to mitigate the potential new risks, and those are plentiful, as I have already outlined.

My Christmas gift is an easier read this month!

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