Monthly commentary

I have decided not to carry on numbering these posts as that would not be very helpful if anyone (including me) wants to search in the history for a particular rambling or rant in the future.

Brexit again

It now makes sense to keep a daily watch on developments and market reactions, especially the direction of the FTSE250 (easily checked on the BBC web site, Business/Market data).

Although a deal being approved by Parliament is in reality only a small step, because the transition period is likely to end without Britain having a new trade deal with Europe and there will be another cliff edge, the markets will be looking for the real Johnson objective to be satisfied (the General Election being called).

As only a contrarian (and one more contrarian than me!) would predict anything other than a decent Tory majority, I would suggest that markets will take that as a positive development. Rather paradoxically, as there will be economic negatives from Brexit, the government and central bank reactions are highly likely to be stimulus by money printing and borrowing. In the short term that is good for bonds.

I will write a longer piece about why I am interested in Corporate Bonds after a long period of ignoring them. But a Brexit deal and an election will possibly also be good for certain equities, so be prepared to dip a toe in the water of the UK Smaller Companies sector and maybe look at some recovery or opportunity funds if you have plenty of cash.

The Incredible Sulk

Not my invention, but the moniker used for POTUS Trump by the Guardian’s political sketch writer.

A few years back, I had the unpleasant experience of trying to deal with someone who I eventually worked out had narcissistic personality disorder. Such people, mainly men, are surprisingly common, I have since found out. Having had that experience, I can to a large extent predict or at least understand how dear Donald will behave.

Such people will swear black is white, will deny that what they said or wrote yesterday is in any way a given fact and generally do anything to preserve the perception they have of themselves as being faultless and adorable. They have trouble believing that anyone could doubt their superiority and deal with it by rubbishing any opponent aggressively because they really believe that such morons and weaklings must be inferior as they have not appreciated the genius of the great one they are trying to criticise.

Academics suggest such people frequently rise to the top in business, politics and the entertainment industries. I bet you can name one or two!

How can such people be stopped from causing chaos and damaging other innocent people? The answer, I found out, is to present them with a situation where they can see that their reputation with be destroyed, given the absolute nature of the facts and the failure that will be attributed to them.

That is why Mr Trump withdrew his proposal to have the G7 meet at his resort in Florida, quite quickly. It was not that he was worried about the conflict of interest accusations – he knows in his own mind that they don’t count much with the public – in fact the sort of people who vote for him admire someone who can make a quick buck, in any way. That he has made clear quite often: morality does not matter to such people.

What he was scared of was the resulting publicity that revealed this was a failing business venture, big time – fact. He can’t get round that, even admit it to himself. Reading it is very painful, so he withdrew his proposal to remove the focus.

Why do I make this argument? Because in the end someone will unravel everything about his Presidency with a wall of facts – probably to do with tax. When that happens, the global economy will heave a sigh of relief.