(published early as I am having a minor operation on April 1st)
Totally Reckless Uncontrolled Malign President (TRUMP)
I have written earlier this year that the main geopolitical risks were Trump, Trump and Trump and the conduct of the Israeli/ American war with Iran has been such as to make even the most experienced independent ‘talking head’ whether a political, diplomatic or military commentator admit that they cannot detect any strategic plan, understand the USA’s actual objectives or even believe that what the President writes on Truth Social even amounts to the policy of anyone other than the man himself at that very moment in whatever mental state he happens to be and with whatever most recent influences have fed his brain.
This is a state of affairs that seems almost beyond belief but I think that some news organisations either have not grasped the reality, or feel that that they should not risk suggesting anything is other than normal and that the US Secretary of State really travels the world with a real idea of what US policy on conducting the war will be tomorrow morning. I imagine that he actually finds out what policy he is supposed to defend by reading Truth Social when he wakes up.
I could write many thousands of words telling you what I think is really happening and why, but that is not the purpose of this blog. Investors are interested in the likely consequences of this state of affairs in terms of asset values in the near term and also beyond that. Here are my observations on that topic. I do have to touch a little on the actual events but will do my best to stick to facts as opposed to opinions about what will happen next in the Middle East.
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