This new year I will take a classical approach and do the look back and look forward that underlies the naming of the month.
I usually read what I wrote a year ago at the start of any new cycle but I note that I deferred offering a full opinion on the impact of Trump’s election until after his inauguration, so the blog post to reference is the one for February 2025.
My analysis of Trump’s likely behaviour was accurate in almost every detail. My expectation that the US Dollar would lose credibility was also correct. However, I did not foresee that AI would be far and away the main corporate story of the year and that the bubble I was worrying about 11 months ago would keep inflating. I was right in my expectations of a poor climate for healthcare stocks and that money would flow into defence industry shares.
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