One of NotHarry’s readers responded to my comments this morning by asking how one might actually get some objective data on the progress of the fight back against Covid-19. Flippantly, I replied Dr Google.
Googling something like “Coronavirus treatment research” and skipping any advert style listing and the quack medicine entries (so getting to the second or third screen usually) really does work. I can see articles for The Lancet, New York Times, CNN and various science publications even on the first page. Clearly at this time, the most recent articles will likely be the most useful.
Varying the search term to read “scientific articles etc” will get a better list but you won’t be able to read more than a summary or abstract from some of the professional publisher sites.
Another useful way to see what is happing is to look at graphics that show the pace of virus spread. I like the tool offered at this web address (URL) https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/. You can easily edit the list of countries whose data is shown. If you did that today and included Austria, you would immediately see why they are able to slightly relax their lockdown. You will also see why there is a lot of pain still to come, if you add the lines for the US and the UK.
Markets today have jumped at the news from Austria and less dramatic improvements in Spain and Italy, but that may be premature, in my judgement.
If you think I am too pessimistic (and I may be, of course), I suggest you might be prudent to make some modest phased allocations of cash to the markets most sold off and those best insulated from the damage already done. To me that suggests a look at the technology and innovations funds and funds investing away from the mega caps (like the FTSE 100). A passive index tracking fund with low costs might well be a simple way to dip your toe back in the water!
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