Pottering About
I note that in previous years I have adopted a ‘first quarter end’ review approach in writing April briefings. That still makes sense to me – we are now far enough into the year to get a feel for what will make 2022 different in economic terms and we can get an idea of what central banks are likely to do to try and manage economic growth and avoid a recession.
How good was my crystal ball?
I did some crystal ball gazing in January and identified a number of risks. Of the potential negatives, inflation and increasing geo-political tensions have turned out to be the two most significant headwinds, although increased US regulation is now coming through and we have not seen the back of Covid19 yet, especially in the Asia Pacific region.
One factor that I touted as a momentum positive, ESG investing, looks like being a little less of a useful guide short term than I predicted. As the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions on Russian energy have pushed the oil price up, so have the price of energy company shares, which will not fit in the portfolios of investors whose ESG filters are focused on sustainable energy and fossil fuel free energy production. This is a subject I address in the second part of this blog.
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