Pottering About
Happy New Year to all my readers!
As this month’s briefing takes quite a detailed look at the current state of the macro factors that you might want to assess when thinking about your asset mix, I have not included the ‘Hit or Myth’ element, although I did have a topic in mind which I mention later on. I will reserve that for another post. It won’t be a long wait!
The cloudy crystal ball
I could this month make sensational or amusing prognostications about investment markets in 2023; I do see articles along those lines in the professional investors’ media almost every day at the moment! It is a seasonal diversion, I guess and most people know that the very name of the month January is about looking both back and into the future.
How often do pundits actually come up with useful predictions?
I worked out a long time ago that one can actually assess the value of such exercises by looking back at the confident prophecies of the so-called experts made exactly one year ago and see how well they did. The preservation of easy to access past publications on the internet has made that a simple task.
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