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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Mark Potter

Monday Mashup – vanishing assets?

6th January 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I am indebted to one of my readers for pointing out that the management of the Premier Defensive fund and its sister the Sentinel Defensive fund changed late in the Summer. I had not spotted that the long term manager Paul Smith had left ‘for personal reasons’.

The Premier fund has been handed over to his deputies but the cheaper Sentinel fund is being transferred to another external manager, Atlantic House.

I used the Sentinel fund myself and indeed still own it in my cautious portfolio element. I liked it because Paul Smith was an expert manager of a specific sort of investment trust share class, zeros, or zero dividend preference shares to give them their full name. These assets were very suitable for stable short term returns if managed by an expert like Paul.

Recently less and less ‘zeros’ have been issued so that very narrow asset class has virtually disappeared. I don’t think Paul ever claimed to be an expert in short dated corporate bonds, which is the job Premier seem to have given him as an alternative, so perhaps his departure was inevitable. I would not want to own the Premier fund now. There are cheaper alternatives for getting access to short dated corporate bonds.

The Sentinel fund may have an alternative future because as far a I can tell Atlantic House have a good record in using derivatives to control volatility and volatility control is what defensive funds are all about. I will follow with interest what they do with the fund.

What? No shares to buy?

I read that even ordinary shares on the main UK markets are being ‘disappeared’ at record levels, some 21 billion Pounds worth in 2019. The buyers responsible are mostly private equity firms, many from overseas.

Having less shares in issue is a reduction is supply, so a useful counterweight to new issues like the huge block of Saudi Arabian oil shares recently made available. So this ‘shrinkage’ may be a good thing.

Filed Under: Education, Funds, Markets, Monthly commentary

Watching Brief – January 2020

2nd January 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

Many people will know that the month of January is named after the Roman god who is portrayed as looking both backwards and forwards. Let’s at least do the looking back bit to start with!

The well-known regulatory caveat that past
performance is no guide to the future is always worth remembering but we can
nonetheless learn a good deal from what happened, especially if we look at the
context.  Of course, we all hope to learn
from past mistakes as well.

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Filed Under: Members Only, Monthly commentary

Seasons Greetings!

24th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

A Santa Rally seems to have at least begun – we can but hope it will continue through to the New Year as the legend suggests it should! That will probably depend on a Don more modern but just as deluded as Cervantes Quixotic hero concentrating on windmills as the enemy and not the Chinese, the Europeans, or in fact anyone powerful.

After Christmas, one should carefully analyse the last year’s portfolio performance and plan for the New Year. Or do what I do….

Anyway, I expect we will again all be trying to make sensible decisions in an unpredictable world much as usual in the New Year. Enjoy your festivities.

Filed Under: Uncategorised

Monday mashup – zero tolerance

16th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This is nothing to do with the potential policies of a new Home Secretary! I am not planning to comment on what could be a different environment for investors for a few days yet.

As others have pointed out, there are at least 2 versions of Boris Johnson; the lying, casually racist egotist and the diffident ‘one nation’ Conservative. The latter might be a concept being acted out on the advice of Dominic Cummings and co. but it could also be the driver of Government policy. We need to be a little more certain about that and we will be better informed over the next few days.

There are many issues that will be troublesome in months to come, aside from the actual delivery of Brexit, which will not be wholly positive in my judgement. The split of the UK into nationalist groups, especially in Scotland, will create some new issues for investors, especially as many top fund managers are located North of Hadrian’s Wall!

Will the real Boris Johnson step forward?

This piece is a seasonal one, drawing your attention to the fact that the investment industry does not find the urgent message being so ably promoted by an autistic teenager as being either trivial or troublesome. There has been for a very long time an enthusiasm for sustainability as an investment criterion. In a world were ‘factor’ investing is becoming the norm, sustainability (in global terms, not internally) of business operations is certainly one factor investment managers take into account.

Global climate change is perhaps the most significant threat to environmental sustainability. I think very few people doubt it is happening, although some well qualified and well informed people argue that the cause may not be so simple as C02 emissions. We do not need to take sides in that debate as investors, but we do need to know how investment managers are tailoring their plans to allow for the CO2 emission reduction targets that are going to be imposed on businesses either by regulation, or by investor activism.

Even if CO2 emissions are NOT the cause of global warming, we are in a ‘Millennium Bug’ situation where vast sums of money will be re-directed as a result of a perceived risk. Investor behaviour has been gradually changing to an ‘anti-carbon’ stance for some time now.

It is well know that even most managers of funds badged as Sustainable or having a high ESG score (environmental, social, governance) do not really have the structure in place to challenge company boards on issues as specific as carbon emission targets. WHEB are a creditable exception to the generally rather wishy washy fund manager approach to getting to grips with issues of corporate governance, which is one reason why I invest in their Sustainability fund.

Seb Beloe, one of the WHEB fund co-managers has joined with other managers for Liontrust, Montanaro and Janus Henderson in supporting an initiative called NZC10 (or Net-Zero Carbon 10). This is a demanding target which requires 10% or more of portfolio assets to be invested in firms that are carbon neutral or have strategies that will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2030. The standard is expected to tighten over time.

Most readers of my musings will be of an age where a global climate crisis is worrying more in the context of later generations, like children and grandchildren. But you may be surprised how quickly climate change impacts your life.

Personally, I have along with a large number of people across the world not supplied by municipal water (and some who are) been obliged to spend out this year on drilling for deeper ground water to supply my everyday life. That was a direct result of record warm dry weather in North Eastern Europe. Extreme weather is not so unusual, it seems to me.

I will write more in depth on this subject in the future, It is a theme that cannot be ignored by investors.

Filed Under: Education, Monthly commentary, Sustainability/ESG

As anticipated…

13th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Britain Backs Boris (except is was actually England). More likely Can’t Countenance Corbyn.

I personally don’t like surprises, being a planner, but was never going to get NotHarry drawn as Scrooge!

It matters not very much why the Tories have their majority for investors, because the key consequence is the probability of getting an actual Brexit is now that much greater. What that means in the long run is for us to ponder.

The Pound has climbed in value, which will devalue those parts of our portfolios in other currencies, as least for a short while. Fortunately there is good news on the US/China trade talks to compensate. European markets also seem pleased with the prospects of clarity on Brexit.

To balance that, the real UK domestic stock market (ie outside of the FTSE 100) has shot up early today, again as I expected, benefiting holding in UK smaller companies funds and probably value funds too.

We now need to think about what happens over the next 12 months. The first step in breaking the deadlock in British politics and what was oppressing the British economy is now past. What comes next could be quite different to what the electorate is expecting. I will put on my thinking hat.

Filed Under: Economics, Politics

New site content

11th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I have added a number of short articles to the new site section Multi Asset Academy.

Data about fund flows shows that a large amount of money is moving from active managed funds into passive funds (index trackers) and from bespoke portfolios and specialist funds into ready made multi-asset funds. This trend is partly because the Vanguard range of funds looks like a ‘have your cake and eat it’ option!

This needs checking out…

Of course, I know that such fictions only exist in the minds of politicians and marketing men.

There is much in favour of Vanguard, especially their crusade for lower costs and I am in favour of investors using tracker funds in some markets.

But I am much more nervous about people buying unmanaged international multi asset funds (maybe only one) without understanding why, at this moment in time, they look so good and why that will not always be true.

Take a look at some of the articles and keep an eye out for new ones!

Filed Under: Announcements, Basics

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