We are currently living through one of those periods when geo-political risk is far and away the factor most likely to influence our financial well-being.

It is generally true that markets are not the economy and vice-versa and economic principals at a high level are somewhat insulated from political shenanigans, but at the moment we have a US president whose policies are so disturbing to investors that the US Dollar is under considerable pressure, which is definitely a relevant ‘macro’ issue for investors, and we have the war in Ukraine driving a sea change in military spending in Europe and the war in the Middle East (when is there not a war in the Middle East?) pushing up oil prices, both wars being factors investors need to count as relevant,

Thinking through the ultimate drivers of the rather disturbing global geo-political scenario, with the aim of predicting how much worse things will get before they get better (by better, I mean more predicable and stable), one cannot avoid thinking: Trump, Putin, Netanjahu, Khameinei. Today’s Guardian newspaper has a cartoon featuring these characters under the heading ‘Country for Old Men’, playing on the Coen brothers’ film of that name, based on Cormac McCarthy’s novel. I understand that the film revolves around money, is extremely violent and many innocent bystanders get killed. The protaganists are utterly ruthless and without symapathy. So the cartoonist’s satire seems highly appropriate.