Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Asset Allocation

Deep Dive – March 2025

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Generative AI – Implications for Investors

A discussion with a subscriber recently prompted me to think that investors ought to be thinking now about the real long-term implications of the release into general use of what is loosely called generative AI – software like Chat GPT, Apple Intelligence, Gemini and DeepSeek.

Introduction

The shorthand AI is actually unhelpful because the word intelligence has always been the subject of controversy and debate and even Wikipedia’s opening lines under the heading of Intelligence point out that the definition is wide and has for over a century been a subject of professional debate amongst psychologists rather than philologists. 

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Deep Dive – January 2025

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Fixed Income – a refresher

This article is designed to satisfy a couple of subscriber requests to offer more core information about fixed income investing.

The asset class that comprises Gilts, Treasuries, Eurobonds, corporate bonds, elements of bank capital, assorted ‘notes’, private credit and the like has been an important investment opportunity for centuries but most beginner investors will, at best, have as their only acquired knowledge of the fixed income market some knowledge of National Savings Certificates.

I freely admit that it took me several years of day-to-day involvement in investment markets as an adviser to feel intuitively comfortable thinking about fixed income (henceforth interchangeably called ‘bonds’  as well, although bonds is a looser term).  That was the case even though I had formal training in corporate finance as a Chartered Secretary and had experience of over a decade working for a mortgage bank.  It’s not a subject that one can skim over and grasp.

I have procrastinated about writing this sort of article until now as even an introduction or refresher requires quite a lot of words.  I hope what follows is digestible and useful.

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Deep Dive – December 2024

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An asset class with Trump 2 era attractions?

Having had no feedback in response to my two-part dissertation on the importance of keeping an eye on high level asset mixes and how that might be achieved, I conclude that either the topic was too complicated, or more likely, my readers ‘get it’ and will be keeping a weather eye on relevant news and its implications.

A key function of my blog posts is to help you sort the wheat from the chaff and this month I will address a topic that I am sure I will have to keep front and centre for some time: Trump 2. Although the implications of the Trump second term could well be very serious indeed, it has yet to start, so all investors can do is read the early signs and think about what they might do to mitigate the potential new risks, and those are plentiful, as I have already outlined.

My Christmas gift is an easier read this month!

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YAP – Snippets

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President Trump

I summarise below (next heading) the main points from a useful Morningstar webinar on the impact of the US election for European investors, presented ahead of the result but assuming a Trump win (it was from their Irish based European markets specialist).

I have been interested to see what the main UK and US media economics and finance commentators are already saying, relative to the factors I listed in the third, most speculative strategy review example I gave in my November Deep Dive.

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Deep Dive – November 2024

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(a continuation of the October 2024 Deep Dive)

Stage 3 – What data do you want to focus on?

Is it difficult?

Writing this section has been a challenge for me and for some it may only be of limited use.  Perhaps each person will go about strategy review work in their own way, but I hope I can give you a few tools to use.

As I thought about what to suggest to help investors acquire and apply information that is freely available these days, a saying of my late mother came to mind.  A rather blunt lady, she was inclined to express frustration at we children not doing things right,  usually by pronouncing the phrase ‘oh, use your common sense!’.  I think maybe that was a well used expression of the 1960s.

I am not going to leave my advice at just that, but I don’t think one requires qualifications in economics, accountancy or investment portfolio theory to use relevant data to make good decisions. 

I have all those qualifications (of course, acquired ages ago!) and perhaps they occasionally give me an extra insight, but I think my personal methodology in moving to a new or updated viewpoint on investment markets (which readers have likely observed over the years) is based on my life experience working in the business sector (as have nearly all my readers) and a keen interest on what is going on in the world, which is so very often a cyclical pattern. 

What goes around comes around is a very useful cliché to keep in mind! For that reason, being old (or having plenty of experience) is a bonus!

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