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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Education

Watching Brief – August 2023

1st August 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

Past the worst?

Looking at my 3 personal portfolios (UK Sterling SIPP, UK Sterling collectives and Euro collectives) I note a noticeable flattening out of what had been a longish mostly downwards line on the valuation over time graph. 

In fact, July was a month of modest gains overall, with the best results in the Euro portfolio, suggesting that over the month Sterling may have appreciated a tad against the currencies underlying the largest holdings I have in my UK pots.

I reckon we are seeing the start of a turnaround….

I cannot of course guarantee it, but my feeling is that early Summer 2023 may be the inflection point when the bear market that started some time in late Autumn 2021 and which has had stuttering false recoveries comes to an end. 

There are plenty of predictions of better economic growth and ‘soft landings’ and unsurprisingly (at least to me), corporate profits are in the main on the up, thanks to the consumer being suckered with price increases, quietly approved of by governments and central banks whether justified or not!

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Asset Allocation, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Research tools

Midweek Musings – some more quiz answers

26th July 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I could not think of anything connected with markets and investing in the current climate to write about this week. I have plenty of ideas, but I have not go very far in developing them so that they would be useful to investors and worth giving up your time to reading!

I will confine this week’s post to answering two more linked questions in my June quiz.

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Asset Allocation, Basics, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – time is your friend

12th July 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

To adapt the words from Sergeant Pepper – ‘it was 46 years ago today’ – that your then naive but optimistic scribe started work for the Halifax Building Society. Over the subsequent nearly half a century in what might loosely be called a career I progessed from cashier clerk/managment trainee through quite a few iterations of finance industry jobs to end up as your semi-retired keyboard warrior writing a blog on the internet on a warm sunny day in Lithuania, a country I suspect all of us know more about than we did in 1976!

Ah, fond memories!

Don’t panic – I am not going to write thousands of words about nostalgic but to you boring biographical stuff. I would only say that I have made mistakes, learned a lot and had a few successes, and that all applies to my adventures as an investor myself!

I refer to this quite large block of time so as to remind readers that when getting all stressed about your investment portfolio performance, if you ever do, you need to remember that most of us are now invested for life and hopefully that means we are going to be in the market for at least a decade or more.

That being the case, we need to always remember that markets are cyclical and we should not get overly focused on the short term. I can now say that with absolute confidence after all that water under the bridge!

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Watching Brief – July 2023

3rd July 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

Half time scores

I find it useful to have a look at market returns around the globe halfway through the year and so present below some approximate data (Source: Yahoo Finance).

INDEX Year to Date Change (local currency)
FTSE 100 No change
FTSE250 (-5%)
S&P500 +1%
Bitcoin +73%
Nikkei225 +28%
Hang Seng (-10%)
DAX/CAC (averaged) +13%
Gold futures +10%
£/USD +5%
£/JPY +16%
A Bitcoin bounce!

Of course, all data taken over a short discrete time period must be viewed with caution, especially noting the significance to percentage returns of where the starting point happened to be – Bitcoin was not exactly flourishing in late 2022, just to pick one example.

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Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Politics, Research tools

Midweek Musings – pessimism prevails for the moment

28th June 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Economics, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Passives and Trackers, Rants

Midweek Musings – the next tech revolution?

21st June 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I recently viewed a webcast which took the form of a panel question and answer session with a professor and post doctorate researchers from MIT in the USA, addressing the implications of generative AI (GIA), the correct technical phrase for ChatGPT and all the other “intelligent” on line offerings that may follow it.

This is the current hot topic in technology news, so is bound to interest investors who believe we increasingly live in a digital economy.

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Filed Under: Economics, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

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