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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Education

Midweek Musings – the 2 most common investor errors

24th May 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Diversification – remember what that means.

All investors make mistakes, even those as famous as Warren Buffet or Terry Smith.

Purchasing investments is about applying general, sound principles that are rooted in the very essence of capitalism and diligent application of those principles and some common sense will always result in acceptable returns over the long run.

However, even though a diversified portfolio of quality funds will always make money long term (if it didn’t, capitalism would have failed too), we can all have components in our portfolios that we worry about, because they are not making money at the moment.

Furthermore, when we pick funds or shares, we are making a judgement based on logic and the data we have available. The facts can and do change or we may even have had incomplete data, or misunderstood its meaning, so we will (all of us) buy investments that are unsuitable when reviewed with that wonderful all-knowing review tool called hindsight.

I used to estimate that I would regret recommending one or two out of every ten funds I put in front of clients. Over the years, the error rate improved, but I still make mistakes now (eg backing fintech at the wrong point in the cycle).

Never forget that if a portfolio did not have any funds performing in a different way to the general market trend, by definition, it would not be diversified.

It would be unsusual, for example, for the large cap global growth funds in your portfolio to be doing well and at the same time to be raking it in on your defensive value funds. If the markets like Tesla and Netflix, they almost certainly don’t want to buy Nestle or Unilever (and vice versa). You might think that you can tactically switch between funds to be always in line with the relevant market factors and if you can do that well, I recommend that you start up your own investment blog!

Anyone out there want to let me fully retire to my slippers and hi-fi?

In reality, and I say this based on over 30 years of reviewing portfolios with investors, human nature means that nearly everyone, on scanning a list of owned funds with recent past performance numbers, will focus on the funds that are showing losses, generally without any reference to their portfolio weighting, when they were bought or what the difference is between performance over varying time periods.

Thinking about this calmly and objectively, we might be tempted into saying – ‘Oh, that’s not me – I take the long view and once I have understood why a fund is underperforming for now, I am chilled about it’.

I am sorry to say that my experience is that even if investors (and I include most IFAS in this analysis) would like to see themselves that way, almost everyone actually stresses out about the funds they own with red or negative numbers showing in their reports.

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Filed Under: Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios, Research tools

Midweek Musings – Sell in May?

17th May 2023 by Mark Potter 2 Comments

An aside

A quick introductory comment: Some indirect feedback from subscribers makes me think that I have been making these midweek updates too long!

I am going to make them shorter for now although once a month I will write a ‘longer read’ two or three part market commentary and technical explainer.

Sell in May and go away?

All readers know this old stock exchange maxim, I am sure. I have written about it in the past and I think, without doing any actual new research, that over a very long period, it would have proved useful more often than not.

Let’s take a look at 2023 to date by checking returns on the major equity asset markets. I am ignoring fixed income as I don’t think the mantra was intended for that market!

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musing – is tactical asset allocation worthwhile?

10th May 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

What is tactical asset allocation?

To answer that question we need to start by understanding the preferred starting point of the ‘alternative’ strategic asset allocation. This is the concept of building a portfolio with a range of asset types with varying degrees of correlation so as to achieve returns in line with our objectives at an acceptable level of volatility.

Investment theory developed over many decades suggests that the ‘right’ asset mix will see returns inevitably impacted by short term systemic changes in market direction, but that the worst volatility will be smoothed out in a well designed portfolio and over the long term returns will be reasonably predictable. Because the market’s short term volatility is in effect allowed for in the model asset mix, provided no major cash flows in or out take place, the asset mix can be generally left alone.

The idea of a well diversified long term mix of equities, bonds and maybe property, commodities and cash is the foundation of all multi-asset portfolios although some narrower equity/bond mixes are promoted as low cost ‘risk controlled’ and ”buy and forget’ products by all sorts of invesment advisers from Vanguard and BlackRock with their passive index trackers to expensive wealth management firms with their model portfolio offerings.

Although I started by saying that what I am calling strategic asset allocation is the alternative to tactical asset allocation, that was really not accurate. Tactical asset allocation is an overlay, or development of strategic asset allocation.

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Filed Under: Academic theory, Asset Allocation, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Passives and Trackers, Portfolios

Watching Brief – May 2023

1st May 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

All my own work – not written by ChatGPT

Pottering About

No clear direction, but plenty of pessimism

The push me/pull you tug of war in stock market valuation judgements continues, with the pessimists seeing more central bank rate rises and recessions all over the place and the optimists predicting the end of the monetary tightening and the brakes coming off a little.

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Filed Under: Economics, Education, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – Slicing and Dicing

26th April 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This post was prompted by a conversation I had with a subscriber this week, but I will have touched on the topic in discussion with quite a few readers in recent months.

I am referring to the concept of looking at your porfolio data through different data windows when conducting a review. This is something investors will find useful as they get more experienced at periodic reviews and in processing their data . For those who are not Excel aces, I can offer a template spreadsheet and some training in using it for a modest temporary subscription increase. In all cases, I am happy to help subscribers paying for personal support at no extra cost if you just want to better understand the idea.

The essentials

There is already on the web site a series of articles in the ‘How To’ section on making sale decisions, reading Morninstar X-Rays (an essential part of any review) and a worked through example of a full rather over deferred porfolio review.

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Filed Under: Education, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

Midweek musings – follow up on April Monthly Briefing

5th April 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Having had a couple of chats with subscribers since I published my Digging Deeper article on ways to objectively assess the merits of asset classes (the supplied example being regional, the UK vs China), the feedback and the normal ‘I should have said that’ thoughts prompt me to add some supplementary remarks.

Firstly, I should have offered an over arching reminder that when looking at asset selection, a highest order criterion is the level of diversification that can be achieved.

How can you test that? A quick way is to pick funds in each of the main asset sectors you already own and the one are considering, without too much research (eg use funds you actually have plus the II Ace lists for an example new fund). Then you could build a watch list with equal amounts of each fund. You don’t need to replicate every part of your existing asset allocation, just the main blocks (say those representiing 10% or more) Running an X-ray on that watch list will then reveal the correlation if you look at what I call the ‘staircase chart’ on page 2 of the pdf variant.

There are quicker intuitive ways of checking diversification that come with experience. For example, you will soon work out that adding a UK fund to a European or US fund of similar market capitalisation does not add much diversify, nor will buying a technology fund if you have lots of sustainable equity holdings.

You should also bear in mind what you have worked out in your analysis. If for example, you had decided in late 2021 that interest rates were going to rise from a very low base, you ought to have also worked out that when those rises started to come through, past data suggesting fixed income was inversely correlated with equities would not be much use – the new situation would break that realtionship! If you did not, don’t feel too upset, as it seems large numbers of bankers and multi-asset fund managers failed to work that out, or at least to do anything about it!

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Education

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