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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Education

Monday Mashup – vanishing assets?

6th January 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I am indebted to one of my readers for pointing out that the management of the Premier Defensive fund and its sister the Sentinel Defensive fund changed late in the Summer. I had not spotted that the long term manager Paul Smith had left ‘for personal reasons’.

The Premier fund has been handed over to his deputies but the cheaper Sentinel fund is being transferred to another external manager, Atlantic House.

I used the Sentinel fund myself and indeed still own it in my cautious portfolio element. I liked it because Paul Smith was an expert manager of a specific sort of investment trust share class, zeros, or zero dividend preference shares to give them their full name. These assets were very suitable for stable short term returns if managed by an expert like Paul.

Recently less and less ‘zeros’ have been issued so that very narrow asset class has virtually disappeared. I don’t think Paul ever claimed to be an expert in short dated corporate bonds, which is the job Premier seem to have given him as an alternative, so perhaps his departure was inevitable. I would not want to own the Premier fund now. There are cheaper alternatives for getting access to short dated corporate bonds.

The Sentinel fund may have an alternative future because as far a I can tell Atlantic House have a good record in using derivatives to control volatility and volatility control is what defensive funds are all about. I will follow with interest what they do with the fund.

What? No shares to buy?

I read that even ordinary shares on the main UK markets are being ‘disappeared’ at record levels, some 21 billion Pounds worth in 2019. The buyers responsible are mostly private equity firms, many from overseas.

Having less shares in issue is a reduction is supply, so a useful counterweight to new issues like the huge block of Saudi Arabian oil shares recently made available. So this ‘shrinkage’ may be a good thing.

Filed Under: Education, Funds, Markets, Monthly commentary

Monday mashup – zero tolerance

16th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This is nothing to do with the potential policies of a new Home Secretary! I am not planning to comment on what could be a different environment for investors for a few days yet.

As others have pointed out, there are at least 2 versions of Boris Johnson; the lying, casually racist egotist and the diffident ‘one nation’ Conservative. The latter might be a concept being acted out on the advice of Dominic Cummings and co. but it could also be the driver of Government policy. We need to be a little more certain about that and we will be better informed over the next few days.

There are many issues that will be troublesome in months to come, aside from the actual delivery of Brexit, which will not be wholly positive in my judgement. The split of the UK into nationalist groups, especially in Scotland, will create some new issues for investors, especially as many top fund managers are located North of Hadrian’s Wall!

Will the real Boris Johnson step forward?

This piece is a seasonal one, drawing your attention to the fact that the investment industry does not find the urgent message being so ably promoted by an autistic teenager as being either trivial or troublesome. There has been for a very long time an enthusiasm for sustainability as an investment criterion. In a world were ‘factor’ investing is becoming the norm, sustainability (in global terms, not internally) of business operations is certainly one factor investment managers take into account.

Global climate change is perhaps the most significant threat to environmental sustainability. I think very few people doubt it is happening, although some well qualified and well informed people argue that the cause may not be so simple as C02 emissions. We do not need to take sides in that debate as investors, but we do need to know how investment managers are tailoring their plans to allow for the CO2 emission reduction targets that are going to be imposed on businesses either by regulation, or by investor activism.

Even if CO2 emissions are NOT the cause of global warming, we are in a ‘Millennium Bug’ situation where vast sums of money will be re-directed as a result of a perceived risk. Investor behaviour has been gradually changing to an ‘anti-carbon’ stance for some time now.

It is well know that even most managers of funds badged as Sustainable or having a high ESG score (environmental, social, governance) do not really have the structure in place to challenge company boards on issues as specific as carbon emission targets. WHEB are a creditable exception to the generally rather wishy washy fund manager approach to getting to grips with issues of corporate governance, which is one reason why I invest in their Sustainability fund.

Seb Beloe, one of the WHEB fund co-managers has joined with other managers for Liontrust, Montanaro and Janus Henderson in supporting an initiative called NZC10 (or Net-Zero Carbon 10). This is a demanding target which requires 10% or more of portfolio assets to be invested in firms that are carbon neutral or have strategies that will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2030. The standard is expected to tighten over time.

Most readers of my musings will be of an age where a global climate crisis is worrying more in the context of later generations, like children and grandchildren. But you may be surprised how quickly climate change impacts your life.

Personally, I have along with a large number of people across the world not supplied by municipal water (and some who are) been obliged to spend out this year on drilling for deeper ground water to supply my everyday life. That was a direct result of record warm dry weather in North Eastern Europe. Extreme weather is not so unusual, it seems to me.

I will write more in depth on this subject in the future, It is a theme that cannot be ignored by investors.

Filed Under: Education, Monthly commentary, Sustainability/ESG

As anticipated…

13th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Britain Backs Boris (except is was actually England). More likely Can’t Countenance Corbyn.

I personally don’t like surprises, being a planner, but was never going to get NotHarry drawn as Scrooge!

It matters not very much why the Tories have their majority for investors, because the key consequence is the probability of getting an actual Brexit is now that much greater. What that means in the long run is for us to ponder.

The Pound has climbed in value, which will devalue those parts of our portfolios in other currencies, as least for a short while. Fortunately there is good news on the US/China trade talks to compensate. European markets also seem pleased with the prospects of clarity on Brexit.

To balance that, the real UK domestic stock market (ie outside of the FTSE 100) has shot up early today, again as I expected, benefiting holding in UK smaller companies funds and probably value funds too.

We now need to think about what happens over the next 12 months. The first step in breaking the deadlock in British politics and what was oppressing the British economy is now past. What comes next could be quite different to what the electorate is expecting. I will put on my thinking hat.

Filed Under: Economics, Politics

New site content

11th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I have added a number of short articles to the new site section Multi Asset Academy.

Data about fund flows shows that a large amount of money is moving from active managed funds into passive funds (index trackers) and from bespoke portfolios and specialist funds into ready made multi-asset funds. This trend is partly because the Vanguard range of funds looks like a ‘have your cake and eat it’ option!

This needs checking out…

Of course, I know that such fictions only exist in the minds of politicians and marketing men.

There is much in favour of Vanguard, especially their crusade for lower costs and I am in favour of investors using tracker funds in some markets.

But I am much more nervous about people buying unmanaged international multi asset funds (maybe only one) without understanding why, at this moment in time, they look so good and why that will not always be true.

Take a look at some of the articles and keep an eye out for new ones!

Filed Under: Announcements, Basics

Monday Mashup – Property Meltdown?

9th December 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Most subscribers will know that while commercial property is a major asset class that offers something different for portfolios with a high income yield from rent and long term inflation proofing of capital values, I have not been keen on it as a portfolio component for several years.

I wrote about my concerns in July 2018 (in fact I even suggested fund suspensions were on the way) and again in July this year when explaining the asset class in a bit more detail.

The ‘gating’ or suspension of the M&G Property fund, one of the biggest, after heavy flows of withdrawals will have been reported in most newspapers over the weekend.

Is commercial property a problem that can’t be fixed for retail investors?

Such funds have had two problems.

Firstly, they are owners of shopping centres and other sites impacted by the downturn in personal shopping as opposed to internet purchasing. Even if a particular fund does not own assets that have had to concede rent reduction, the valuation of property is always on a comparative basis, so all retail assets will have been seeing valuation issues.

Secondly, after the financial crisis when a number of funds closed in this way for quite a while, the regulator has insisted that they hold plenty of cash to meet withdrawals (although M&G still almost ran out), and cash earns no returns, so the overall prerormance of the asset class suffers.

A question now arises as to whether or not the increased use of model portfolios and multi-asset funds by advisers has exacerbated the issue. If they make allocations to a given ‘best buy’ property fund, en masse, it accumulates money that it can be hard for the manager to allocate to sensible purchases. If that fund underperforms because it has then made poor decsions (going into speculative development might be one such) advisers, again on masse, move large sums to another ‘in fashion’ fund. This imposes hard to manage cash flow demands on the funds.

For the time being, I am very happy that the only exposure I have to property investment is the house I live in!

Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Education, Monthly commentary

Wait for it….

25th November 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I will not comment on markets and investment matter in general today for two reasons: I can’t think if anything to say that will not be covered in my December Watching Brief in a few days time and apart from the local election in Hong Kong having proceeded peacefully (good news), nothing much new has happened.

The publication of the manifestos of the main political parties is fanciful as ever, with ‘commitments’ that make for good headlines. At least this time there is out and out socialism from Labour and therefore a contrast with the gently shifted Tory ‘almost more of the same’ offering. The polling data is now so clearly indicating a Tory victory that the media punters are covering their backs with pieces worrying about sudden changes in the last fortnight of the campaign!

Just read an exciting political party manifesto

We will just have to wait and see..

Following publication of a Long Read piece introducing passive investment concepts, I am researching the multi asset fund market, focusing on the low cost passive options as this is where retail investors’ money if flowing now, often on the advice of IFAs who want to shift all the investment work somewhere else and still maintain their own fees for doing very little of use!

I can see merit in such funds, if only in certain situations, but if you put your whole portfolio in a good selection of properly reviewed low cost passives in a risk adjusted mix, you would certainly not need to pay an adviser thousands of pounds a year. Even the IFA trade press is admitting that much now.

Filed Under: Announcements, Monthly commentary, Politics

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