• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • About This Website
    • A polite reminder
  • How To
    • Use this website and benefit from the subscription option
    • Pick a financial adviser
    • Ensure your investment adviser is delivering good value
    • Get expert help with running your own portfolio
    • Pick a ‘tax wrapper’
    • Pick a Trading Platform
    • Diversify a portfolio in today’s world
    • Invest in line with your conscience
    • Research (screen for) a specific fund requirement (m)
    • Pick a fund for the future or how to be a contrarian (m)
    • Find the ‘next best thing’ and make rational sell decisions (fund switching) (m)
    • Time investment sales (skim profits) (m)
    • Interpret a Morningstar X-Ray (m)
    • Use Trustnet for Research (m)
    • How to review a neglected portfolio when the world has moved on (m)
  • *Important Information*
  • Real World
    • A Frank Introduction to Investing
    • Costs
    • Investment Risk – Your Starter For 10
    • How are advisers fees worked out?
    • 10+ top tips for investors
    • An actual portfolio review (m)
    • Benchmarks – a thorny subject
    • Disinvestment from fossil fuel businesses – are there better options?
  • Tales of the Unexpected
    • Lola
    • Round and Round the Mulberry Bush
    • FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and the lazy mind.
    • Property Development Schemes
  • For More Experienced Investors
  • Glossary with a Difference
  • Member Only Content (M)
    • Example of simple cash flow planner (m)
    • Long Reads
      • What is market shorting and is it a bad thing?
      • How to conduct a periodic portfolio review (m)
      • Investing without management (passively) – a better way? (m)
  • Portfolios and Funds (m)
    • Lessons in Portfolio Construction and Maintenance – Introduction
      • High Level Asset Allocation
      • Selecting Funds
      • Cash Flow and Tax Issues in Portfolio Construction
      • Setting Objectives and Understanding Risks
      • A suggested portfolio for Alex Bright
  • Multi Asset Academy (m)
    • Some basic basics
    • Who are Vanguard?
    • Are multi-asset funds expensive?
    • Cheap and cheerful?
    • Its all about asset allocation, but…
    • Myth and misunderstandings
    • Taking money out of multi asset funds – the pros and cons
    • Distribution funds – the forerunner of multi asset investing?
    • DIY Multi Asset – adding risk controls
    • Benchmark Fog
  • Member Login
  • Logout

Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – some useful data

16th January 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Yesterday, I listened to a webinar delivered by Steve Bell, the Chief Economist at Columbia Threadneedle, because although economists as a rule rank no higher than weather forecasters in my ranking of scientific reliability and utility, Steve is a man of mature years, presents vast amounts of data in interesting charts and is modest in offering his prognosis.

Here are some extracts that will give you some extra context for decision making in the immediate future.

Note that the focus was on the 3 main developed market groupings of interest to British investors, being the USA, Europe and the UK. Only passing reference was made to the Asia Pacific markets. The comments were about macro ecomomic trends and therefore applicable to all asset classes, notably both equities and fixed income (bonds).

I recommend keeping in mind that the data supplied is naturally backward looking, although very up to date, and I am only referring to a trend or future direction when I say so.

More gloom than sunshine, but is it overdone?

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please Log In. Not a Member? Join Us

Filed Under: Economics, Education, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – Dull markets and a star manager goes out on his own

10th January 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

As is common in early January, markets are drifting, more down than up, as participants get back into gear after the long seasonal break, wait for their analysts to publish 2023 4th quarter data and complete the usual crystal ball gazing. Those analysts are not usually so prompt as your scribe, probably because they need their teams to build deep decks of incomprehensible Powerpoint slides to make their hunches look more convincing!

On that topic, I will be reporting Morningstar’s recent webinar on prospects for European markets in 2024, probably next week. They had a good ration of pretty but not always relevant slides!

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please Log In. Not a Member? Join Us

Filed Under: Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Trading

Watching Brief – January 2024

2nd January 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Happy New Year!

I promised a look back on 2023 and some pointers on what to look out for in 2024, with just a smattering of predictions for the coming year.  Let’s do it!

2023

I spotted that the FT ran a headline on December 31st along the lines of 2023 being the best year for markets since 2019. As 2020 was something of a special year due to the pandemic and the end of 2021 was the collapse of the long, fantasy driven, free money, bull market, that is not a hugely inspiring claim.  2022 saw the realization that fixed income stocks and growth equity discounts had been based on a wildly optimistic bet that interest rates would stay low for ever, so was an equally gloomy year (but one that many had seen coming).

Forwards into a new dawn?

2023 was in fact at the start very much a continuation of 2022, with an expected recovery in fixed income (bond) valuations deferred longer than many (including me) anticipated as central banks dramatized their heroic role in battling inflation with ‘higher for longer’ interest rates.  It was only in late October that markets collectively decided not to believe that rates were going to stay up much longer and a new, and I think permanent, upward trend in valuations commenced.

If interest rates were the main driver of 2023 markets as a whole, then a whole raft of economic problems in China, or more exactly the very negative perception of Western investors about China as a place to invest, meant that a place where you would have wanted to lower your asset mix exposure in 2023 was China and by implication, many Asia Pacific and Emerging Market funds where the managers were still sticking to heavy fund weightings in the main China and Hong Kong stock markets.

A place where I thought investors ought to be confident bumping up their asset allocations was the unloved UK.  Some funds with careful stock picking have already offered very solid returns from portfolios of mostly UK shares and I think this is just the start of a new phase when global money flows into UK companies with secure profits and ridiculously low P/E ratios.  A recovery in technology shares was kicked off by almost irrational enthusiasm for everything you could stick an AI badge on.

So we have arrived, for better or worse as always at the start of a new year.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please Log In. Not a Member? Join Us

Filed Under: Education, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios, Trading

Midweek Musings – Seasons Greetings!

20th December 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

It looks we may be in for a rather late Santa Claus rally in the UK market with better than expected inflation numbers just published.

I was amused to see someone in government or the Bank of England saying that workers would need to accept lower pay rises before the central bank interest rate would come down. With many fixed rate mortgages at low rates coming to an end now, I can imagine many a home owner adopting the mirror position and unions also saying that as long as interest rates remain high, workers need large pay rises!

The sharper than expected drop in inflation without a large rise in umemployment, which is what is also happening in other major economies, further confirms that the bout of infaltion which is now tailing off was driven by supply side factors and central banks are likely to cause uneccesary recessions if they don’t take their foot of the brake and start a little stimulus before long.

Maybe the markets are here with our 2023 presents?

Markets, I suspect, do not believe that the hawks on central banks committees are any more in the majority, so are anticipating rate cuts in 2024. The risk to equities is in fact the aforementioned potential recessions.

Fixed income assets are for that reason useful insurance at the moment – in fact something of a one-way bet.

My January monthly briefing will be the next publication from me, when I will look back briefly on 2023 and do some crystal ball gazing for 2024, like a true Janus.

Until then, I wish all my readers a peaceful, healthy and happy fortnight over the holiday season. And a nice fat portfolio valuation for December 31st!

Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Monthly commentary, Uncategorised

Midweek Musings – New direction?

13th December 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

As I have repeated ‘ad nauseum’ the likely direction of both equity and fixed income valuations has for many months depended only only one factor: what markets though would be the next central bank move on interest rates.

Different market segments have reacted in slightly different ways, such as short dated bonds doing better than long dated when rate rises were frequent, but really the alleged ‘fight against inflation’ has been the only news you needed to follow.

I think that will change in 2024.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please Log In. Not a Member? Join Us

Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Midweek Musings – no correlation?

6th December 2023 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Take a look at this chart:

The above is one measure of retail sales growth in Great Britain (Source: Statista).

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please Log In. Not a Member? Join Us

Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Rants

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Page 1
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 9
  • Page 10
  • Page 11
  • Page 12
  • Page 13
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 39
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Recent Posts

  • Deep Dive – November 2026 (Part 2)
  • Deep Dive – November 2026 (Part 1)
  • A little foresight?
  • Mid-Month Musings – Snippets
  • Deep Dive – October 2026

Archives

Categories

  • Academic theory
  • Announcements
  • Asset Allocation
  • Basics
  • Cost of investing
  • Economics
  • Education
  • Funds
  • House rules
  • Humour
  • Innovation
  • Markets
  • Members Only
  • Monthly commentary
  • News
  • Opinion
  • Passives and Trackers
  • Politics
  • Portfolios
  • Rants
  • Research tools
  • Site Content
  • Sustainability/ESG
  • Trading
  • Uncategorised