Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Monthly commentary

Deep Dive – April 2025

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Trump 2 – what we know so far and the implications for investors

My more diligent subscribers may have noticed a pause in my Your Attention Please (YAP) posts which was partly because I was on holiday (in England) for a week and partly because the current situation demands a more in-depth commentary.

I would not usually write this monthly longer missive as a commentary on recent market returns or the evolving ‘macro’ background, but my take on the current state of affairs is that the impact of the bizarre behaviour of the incumbent of the White House is so significant in terms of the ongoing assessment of the market valuation of investment assets, that a calm, logical, albeit personally biased review of what has happened so far could be very useful to my readers. I think readers pay me for an opinion and observations, not just to report data!

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Deep Dive – March 2025

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Generative AI – Implications for Investors

A discussion with a subscriber recently prompted me to think that investors ought to be thinking now about the real long-term implications of the release into general use of what is loosely called generative AI – software like Chat GPT, Apple Intelligence, Gemini and DeepSeek.

Introduction

The shorthand AI is actually unhelpful because the word intelligence has always been the subject of controversy and debate and even Wikipedia’s opening lines under the heading of Intelligence point out that the definition is wide and has for over a century been a subject of professional debate amongst psychologists rather than philologists. 

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Deep Dive – February 2025

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Trump 2 – a different and personal take on the implications

 So far…

At this early stage of the new US President’s term of office, it is not possible to make any reliable predictions about the global macro economic impact beyond examining the potential threats, which I have already done in a number of ways, as have many, many other commentators.

I will this month offer what is absolutely only an opinion, based on my personal view of the world, so this piece is not claimed to be educational.  Feel free to disagree with me: I will be satisfied if I have prompted you to think about the situation in a new way or added an angle to your existing assessment.

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YAP – 2025 as seen from New York

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I receive a daily news feed on markets from the Dealbook team at the New York Times. I find this useful as we all know that what happens in the US stock markets is highly relevant data in interpreting the global macro-economic climate and overall financial risk.

The New York team leader Andrew Ross Sorkin recently published his thoughts on what might happen in 2025. Now pundits there are a plenty, but this author has contacts at the very highest levels of US business, so you might be interested in his thoughts as context. I have picked the points I thought most relevant to UK-based retail investors. My own touch of flavour is added.

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