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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Monthly commentary

Deep Dive – January 2025

2nd January 2025 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Fixed Income – a refresher

This article is designed to satisfy a couple of subscriber requests to offer more core information about fixed income investing.

The asset class that comprises Gilts, Treasuries, Eurobonds, corporate bonds, elements of bank capital, assorted ‘notes’, private credit and the like has been an important investment opportunity for centuries but most beginner investors will, at best, have as their only acquired knowledge of the fixed income market some knowledge of National Savings Certificates.

I freely admit that it took me several years of day-to-day involvement in investment markets as an adviser to feel intuitively comfortable thinking about fixed income (henceforth interchangeably called ‘bonds’  as well, although bonds is a looser term).  That was the case even though I had formal training in corporate finance as a Chartered Secretary and had experience of over a decade working for a mortgage bank.  It’s not a subject that one can skim over and grasp.

I have procrastinated about writing this sort of article until now as even an introduction or refresher requires quite a lot of words.  I hope what follows is digestible and useful.

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Basics, Funds, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

YAP – global macro update at the year end

12th December 2024 by Mark Potter 2 Comments

I listened to a presentation by Steve Bell, chief European economist at CT (the fund manager formerly known as Columbia Threadneedle) earlier this week. His mandate was to summarise the main economic facts of 2024 and take some preliminary guesses at what might happen in 2025. I use the word ‘guesses’ because he will make another presentation next month when he will likely offer more evidence-based predictions.

Steve is a man of considerable experience (as we old guys like to describe being a boomer) and has a good track record on getting at least most of his short-term predictions right, which for an economist is indeed noteworthy!

Here you go – the facts

There was a huge amount of data in his 45-minute talk and I will make a video to give you my take on the elements that amount to interpretation and speculation/prediction. Meanwhile, for those of my readers who like cold facts in writing, here are some highlights. Note that this was a review for North America, Europe and the UK, without any detailed focus on the Asia Pacific region.

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Filed Under: Economics, Education, Members Only, Monthly commentary

Deep Dive – December 2024

2nd December 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

An asset class with Trump 2 era attractions?

Having had no feedback in response to my two-part dissertation on the importance of keeping an eye on high level asset mixes and how that might be achieved, I conclude that either the topic was too complicated, or more likely, my readers ‘get it’ and will be keeping a weather eye on relevant news and its implications.

A key function of my blog posts is to help you sort the wheat from the chaff and this month I will address a topic that I am sure I will have to keep front and centre for some time: Trump 2. Although the implications of the Trump second term could well be very serious indeed, it has yet to start, so all investors can do is read the early signs and think about what they might do to mitigate the potential new risks, and those are plentiful, as I have already outlined.

My Christmas gift is an easier read this month!

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Education, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Politics, Portfolios

Deep Dive – November 2024

1st November 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

(a continuation of the October 2024 Deep Dive)

Stage 3 – What data do you want to focus on?

Is it difficult?

Writing this section has been a challenge for me and for some it may only be of limited use.  Perhaps each person will go about strategy review work in their own way, but I hope I can give you a few tools to use.

As I thought about what to suggest to help investors acquire and apply information that is freely available these days, a saying of my late mother came to mind.  A rather blunt lady, she was inclined to express frustration at we children not doing things right,  usually by pronouncing the phrase ‘oh, use your common sense!’.  I think maybe that was a well used expression of the 1960s.

I am not going to leave my advice at just that, but I don’t think one requires qualifications in economics, accountancy or investment portfolio theory to use relevant data to make good decisions. 

I have all those qualifications (of course, acquired ages ago!) and perhaps they occasionally give me an extra insight, but I think my personal methodology in moving to a new or updated viewpoint on investment markets (which readers have likely observed over the years) is based on my life experience working in the business sector (as have nearly all my readers) and a keen interest on what is going on in the world, which is so very often a cyclical pattern. 

What goes around comes around is a very useful cliché to keep in mind! For that reason, being old (or having plenty of experience) is a bonus!

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Education, Members Only, Monthly commentary

YAP – snippets

23rd October 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

To offer some practical support with the ideas outlined in the Deep Dive article series I started at the beginning of this month, I have decided to pass on to subscribers some condensed notes of the material I see in my own reading. Some of my news feeds are only available to those who can pre-register as financial services professionals, supplying some supporting data about their occupation, so I may get earlier or more specifically focused data that could have an impact on strategic investment themes.

I would also claim that I can more quickly add some qualitative interpretation and keep out most of the ‘noise’, a skill I wrote that everyone ought to try and develop.

[Read more…] about YAP – snippets

Filed Under: Announcements, Asset Allocation, Education, Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

YAP – markets back on track?

8th October 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

The market trend that I have previously called ‘benign’ was set back by a sharp but short correction in early August and what looks almost like an echo of that in early September. So far we have not had the same this month. In terms of global market indices, the low points of those dips look to be more or less in line with the trend in market lows for the last couple of years as does the current high valuation.

As we know the upward momentum is not evenly strong across the globe with much of it having come until quite recently from the so-called Mag 7 stocks, although in truth not all of the chosen 7 have done that well.

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Opinion, Portfolios

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