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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Uncategorised

Monday Mashup – toothless regulators

4th November 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This week I am not writing about the investment markets, but the system of retail investment. We all have a risk if the people we give our money to negligently mis-manage it or even run off with it. There are systems in place that are supposed to protect us in a country with a highly developed financial services industry, but do they work?

Covering all angles

I will start with an allegorical situation. I own a house in a country where burglaries are reportedly (from the insurers) less common than in England, but as I live in a remote area I have a good electronic security system, pay a modest sum to a security company to send out 2 armed employees promptly if it is triggered and as a backstop have a normal house contents insurance (with a discount because of the security arrangements).

Here I am training and improving my CV ahead of applying for a job at the FCA

It all works – I know because I accidentally triggered a smoke detector in the small hours and had 2 large uniformed guys appear and ask me for ID docs and my password! I suppose you can get burglars in pyjamas!

I tell you this because that is how the retail investor buying funds ought to be protected in the UK – with proper security systems that respond

We pay for our own protection

Our money goes into OEICs, which are run in line with a prospectus and have an ACD (authorised corporate director) who is charged with making sure the securities are looked after and the fund manager behaves. That is the first line security system. You pay for it directly in your fees.

There is also the FCA (the regulator or response force). They are supposed to understand the market operators, monitor them, identify risks and discipline or even close down bad actors You pay for it indirectly in your fees.

Then there is the last resort insurance policy – the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. This is widely used as a ‘catch all’ to make up for all the bad practice that the FCA failed to notice. If you think adviser fees, bank charges and insurance premiums have gone up a lot lately, one reason is to pay for the escalating cost of FSCS levies – so you maybe pay for that too.

The Woodford case

In the case of the Woodford Equity Income fund, it appears that Mr Woodford was able to invest outside of the stated objectives of his fund and in breach of the FCA rules. Other industry practitioners could see that was happening and it was reported by specialist journalists. The ACD must have known it was happening, The FCA should have known it was happening.

The security system and regulation failed. Investors who are annoyed (understandably) are suggesting that they will sue financial advisers and Mr Woodford’s firm (not much use if it is closed down). Who is holding the ACD and the FCA to account?

The FCA are in my direct personal experience incapable of acting on specific warnings of potential fraud. The ACD model is being challenged by some who point out that the European SICAV model would offer better protection. But of course we are supposed to be having a bonfire of regulations post Brexit! If that happens, then it will be truly ‘caveat emptor’ – buyer beware. The current system frequently fails, but it is better than no system at all.

Filed Under: Uncategorised

The Crux of the matter (m)

1st November 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

In December 2018, I reported a career move of a specialist UK fund manager from L&G to Crux, a newish fund manager owned boutique investment house. He runs there a UK Special Situations fund.

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Filed Under: Uncategorised

Watching Brief – November 2019

1st November 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Pottering About

I have recently been so bold as to try and define the Conservative government strategy on Brexit and their potential to govern in practice.  I was right to suggest that a General Election was their principal objective, ideally post Brexit with the public not contemplating remain or second referendum issues, but they failed to achieve the October 31st exit.

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Economics, Markets, Monthly commentary, Portfolios, Uncategorised

My name is Bond, Strategic Bond (m)

23rd October 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Members Only, Uncategorised

Monday Mash Up 004

7th October 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

If you read the ‘start the week’ data on the Bloomberg business news website today, you might conclude that nothing much was going on – everything is calm and nobody is worried about anything.

But if you happened to have looked at the same site yesterday, being a Sunday, you would have seen a more thoughtful set of bullet points. They highlighted the fact that Germany is going into recession, politicians in Europe think the UK is now just playing a blame game and does not want a Brexit deal, there are potential difficulties coming up with the US/China trade talks and that maybe the US economy has now joined the global slowdown.

The last possibility can hardly be a surprise, given that anyone who knows anything about economics from a GCSE student upwards would have predicted that as a likely outcome of US policy on global trade.

Some readers may have thought it odd that US stock markets seemed to react positively to weaker US employment growth, one of the data points underlying the suspicion that the US economy is now braking.

That is because the possibility of a slowdown should, in theory, lead to lower interest rates in the US and the basis of equity share valuations is, at a fundamental level, connected with interest rates, Broadly speaking, lower interest rate expectations are good for equities because they are good for bonds.

If you print too much money, you can’t juggle with it because it drowns you!

This however is a mechanical relationship, so may not always correctly predict the prospects for equities in the medium term. If there is too much inflation at the same time as a slowing or even shrinking economy, suggesting that horror or horrors – stagflation, then the prospects for shares are really rather poor. Furthermore, the use of monetary loosening to boost asset prices is rather taken for granted, It is questionable as to what outcomes might follow if interest rates can only go down further by becoming negative.

So we should not join in the markets excitement about lower interest rates and assume that, as I have suggested before, central banks, will always be able to bail out ill thought-out political policies, or fantasy financial constructions in the corporate banking sector.

One might think of quantative easing as a bit like paracetemol. It lowers the pain if used judiciously, but take too much and you will get some fairly horrible major organ damage.

Filed Under: Economics, Monthly commentary, Uncategorised

Monday Mash Up 003

23rd September 2019 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This week starts with British politics in such a state the word ‘febrile’ is getting seriously overused. In the US, there are more and more hints of reasons to impeach the president and a war in the Middle East is being openly discussed. Some major new long heralded stick market flotations have been postponed.

Not the rosiest of times for investors one might imagine. But stock markets seem to be happy range trading as they have been for weeks. A diversified portfolio will see modest gains over one period and then see the short term profit evaporate.

I am an avid reader and have found it fascinating of late to dip into the diary extracts of people who kept a personal record of history (the source is the outstanding anthology The Assassin’s Cloak). One can learn of lot from looking back on real peoples’ ‘live’ observation of history.

Maybe we detect a change in the climate but is it not human nature to hope for the best?

Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day when I will visit is small patch of land in the forest about a mile from where I am now and contemplate how 1400 men women and children were machine gunned to death in the pit they had been forced to dig. Diary entries I have read of Jewish people all over Europe reveal that many took the gradual increase in Nazi hostility with resignation and never saw the ‘final solution’ coming until it was upon them.

This is a sad source for a lesson in human nature, I realise, but it should not be forgotten. When a situation deteriorates slowly, we tend to ‘get used it’ and are unprepared for a truly disastrous shock that we ought to have seen coming. Such progressive scenarios often occur in stock markets.

Filed Under: Uncategorised

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