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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Uncategorised

November 2018 (m)

4th November 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: Economics, Education, Markets, Portfolios, Uncategorised

Watching Brief for September now published (m)

3rd September 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This month I argue with Warren Buffet and talk about having too many courgettes…. [Read more…] about Watching Brief for September now published (m)

Filed Under: Uncategorised

Portfolio Update – Alex Bright

8th August 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This portfolio is the one that was built to conclude the series of articles for subscribing members about portfolio construction techniques.  It now has a 3 month track record (to July 31st) – not long enough to draw any sensible conclusions but I did promise to report on how it was working!

It was designed to allow regular and ad hoc withdrawals and has a bias to defensive assets with some adventurous satellite elements in classic ‘NotHarry’ style.

On this page you can access a chart summarising the components.  This links also allows you to see the commentary explaining the portfolio design as well, but the articles explaining the portfolio build process are reserved for subscribing members.

Morningstar show total returns of 0.68% over the 3 months, slightly behind a benchmark of a GB Cautious Allocation, which I think is the most appropriate.

However, the Morningstar result excludes the Guinness Global Innovators fund which does not subscribe to their services.  That made over 5% in the 3 month period and is 10% of the allocation, so would have pushed the return up to 1.18%, well ahead of the benchmark.

I would not be altering the portfolio at this early stage and returns are coming out as I would expect.

Filed Under: Uncategorised

August Watching Brief now available (m)

5th August 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Subscribers can now read my monthly commentary here

Filed Under: Uncategorised

Cash as an asset class

21st May 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Introduction

In various places on this web site, I suggest that holding cash as an integral component of your portfolio mix is a way of diversifying risk.  In the briefest terms possible, keeping cash on hand lowers volatility, saves you selling at the wrong time and gives you the opportunity to buy cheap assets without notice.  In essence I prefer what is called the ‘cash plus risk’ investment approach to the traditional portfolio construction based on the assumed non-correlation between equity shares and fixed income or loan stocks.

Where to keep it?

In practice there are 3 main ways you can hold cash as part of your investing strategy:  in your bank, building society or other deposit taking institution (or in your sock, if you really must!), as part of your platform or wrap assets, or in the control of the fund managers you select.

It is worth mentioning that the managers of funds that list as a primary objective investing in stock markets assets have inconsistent views on holding cash within their funds:  some say it is not their job to hold cash and they will always be fully invested, others say they must hold cash to manage liquidity (common for property funds) and a third group hold cash as a tactical asset (especially in absolute return funds).  If you get a ‘drill down’ analysis of your funds portfolio from your adviser or platform supplier, you may well find you are more into cash than you thought!

Holding cash in money market unitised funds that invest in deposit like instruments like floating rate notes or synthetic zero dividend preference shares (that can still fall in value but are low volatility) only works if the long term returns are better than bank interest rates after tax plus the fund fees.  That is sometimes the case, but the best funds will show losses for periods, albeit they recover over time.

Holding cash in private accounts is the favoured approach of most investors because they are in control, can keep an eye out for the best products from banks and building societies and have instant access.  Tax favoured offerings from National Savings are a good bet at times depending on Government policy to borrowing direct from the public which varies a fair bit.

Keeping cash in your platform or wrap account is ideal if you are going to use the money for dealing quite soon, but interest rates on such money may currently be negative after fees are taken into account, so I would suggest such holdings would usually be short term.  The better platforms do offer access to fixed term deposit accounts to squeeze a bit more interest out of the system, but of course that may constrain an opportunistic quick buy of an asset you just decided was priced where you liked it!

My view

I think only modest amounts, intended for dealing (possibly raised from recent asset sales) should be kept on platforms.  I think your cash ought to be in your control, but that you ought to know that “investment cash” is separate from your day to day funds and any emergency reserve for unexpected capital items that you like to keep.

It helps if you keep that portfolio strategy cash noted in your records with your other portfolio asset data if you want to measure your returns accurately.  In good times, the cash holding will be a brake on performance and there will be a psychological ‘itch’ to invest it but when markets fall, it will be something you can access while you wait for things to get better and the psychology will all be positive!

Actually, in my opinion, holding a good cash reserve is not really a brake on good performance long term, because you can make the assets you do invest in that bit more adventurous and over time that will generally pay you back with better returns.  Recent research supports this supposition over more time periods than not.

 

Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Portfolios, Uncategorised

Old dogs and new tricks (m)

15th May 2018 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

I have just completed a review of the FP Crux European Special Situations fund, run by a great team I supported during my time as an IFA.

You can read it here.

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Filed Under: Uncategorised

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