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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Mark Potter

Monday mashup – let’s go to the gym

16th November 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

The headline is not referring to those strange smelling places where people go to listen to music whilst undergoing a physical regime to better their body and mind. Most of my subscribers are past the age where that would be a tempting way of whiling away their retirement and the younger readers will be locked out anyway, at least for now.

I am suggesting some mental stretches and heavy lifting by the ‘little grey cells’.

The huge banking and asset management business J P Morgan publishes an excellent quarterly information resource and commentary called Guide to the Markets. Anyone can view the main content and J P Morgan even supply helpful viewing tools. Just search for J P Morgan Guide to the Markets using your favoured search engine (Ecosia is worth a try if you are fed up with Google monopolising the world and like the idea your searches funding tree planting to help the NHS).

This drawing depicts a slim and active fellow. From the neck up, it does resemble the author!

There is a vast amount of material available if you want a really testing workout but if your brain has almost hibernated because of lockdowns, scroll down and look at Investment Outlook (under More Insights – in the middle). After an introduction, this has a section called Key Themes.

One article that will be of interest to investors who prefer multi asset funds is the one headed ’60:40 When bond yields are near zero’. Like much of the site content, the commentary is backed by data charts and introduces ideas without getting too complex.

There are many ways of viewing data and commentary – just like a great health club, this place has huge variety of ways of getting your workout.

The forward looking analysis that features in different ways in the data packs and articles was picked up and summarised by media outlets that I saw as suggesting that it was time to look to ‘value’ investing because the growth and momentum factors were going to run out of steam. Assiduous readers of my rambling will know that I have come around to that point of view over the last few months.

My main take from the data is that the ‘on-off’ recession we are seeing now is not like any other and deeper and faster than any in the records but that the trend in US equity valuations is more or less uninterrupted. That suggests a tension that needs to be resolved. If you keep driving your sports car hard with an oil leak and ignore the engine warning light, you will not slow down for a while but the end result will be a catastrophic engine failure.

I like one banner that I spotted on the J P Morgan site: ‘Embrace volatility. Don’t panic. Stay diversified’. Spot on! Even markets that crash offer investors opportunities, if they are prepared.

Personal contact level subscribers who would be interested in exercising their minds by working through some of the resources on offer from J P Morgan can book a ‘personal trainer’ session with me for 45 minutes or so.

Filed Under: Monthly commentary

Monday mashup – result?

9th November 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

My reading of on-line news media is that Joe Biden is now President of the USA. Except he isn’t. Not yet anyway.

Stock markets will certainly take the high probability that he will be inaugurated President in January by running a relief rally, probably everywhere in the world. If there are serious shenanigans from the Trump camp, that could reverse quickly.

Having had the very unpleasant experience of battling someone with a severe narcissistic personality disorder in my business life, I can only report that once defeated by an irrefutable act (not evidence, because such people can’t understand any truth apart from one that makes them look good), narcissists move on to something else and just blank the past like an Etch-a Sketch screen.

So I am happy to trust that the media and markets will not find their expectations crushed.

In any case, the Covid-19 pandemic is in my view a more serious threat to investment markets and for investments in the UK and Europe, the actual impact of Brexit on trade systems.

Tactical investors will continue to back investments that are more ‘Covid and Brexit proof’, even if they are already expensive. Global Growth funds with tech, pharma, financial services and on-line consumption biases will likely be the places to make money in the near term. Some over-valued shares will collapse because of changes in consumption patterns and maybe we will see inflation poke its nose out from the cellar where it has been hibernating.

The latter would be bad news for fixed income investments and good news for the gold price. As ever, whatever your view of the future, you can find something with promise and diversify your risk with something defensive or contrarian.

Filed Under: Monthly commentary, Uncategorised

The 5 rules of business – the reason IFAs promote multi-asset funds

5th November 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

These 5 rules were told to me about 35 years ago by a colleague just back from a management course. You may know them:

  1. What’s
  2. In
  3. It
  4. For
  5. Me?

I am reminded of this by reading an article by Jamie Farquhar, who is business development director at Square Mile Consulting and Research.

Noting large inflows into multi-asset funds reported by the Investment Association, he writes:

‘This strategy is central to driving enterprise value for their [advisers’] businesses by further de-risking the balance sheet and delivering increased operational efficiency.’

(Professional Adviser 05/11/20)

He also mentions an old tale of the IFA profession: the head of sales of a large UK fund management operation was heard opining: “I don’t care what the question is, the answer is multi-asset”

Multi-asset funds may well suit some investors and Vanguard have led the way in constructing low cost reasonably transparent offerings, but don’t think your multi-asset proposition was the result of your adviser looking after you better – other interests came higher up the priority list!

Filed Under: Rants

Watching Brief – November 2020

5th November 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: Monthly commentary

Monday mashup – pause pressed

2nd November 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

This week I will finalise my monthly subscriber only commentary – I will publish it after we have a better idea of the outcome of the US elections (I hope that will be this week!). So no Monday Mashup today because my latest thoughts will be in the Watching Brief text.

As a teaser, in addition to the prospects for Trumpty Dumpty (as named by John Lithgow), I will be expounding on the permanence of consumer spending in today’s world and the chances of a double dip recession with a look at markets from 1999-2002 as a history lesson. I will try and break through the fog on factor investing and continue showing you my nitty gritty research into funds offering future opportunities in the UK stock market.

Filed Under: Announcements, Uncategorised

Monday mashup – more work on sniffing out opportunities

26th October 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Next week will see the US Presidential election come to a climax and no doubt there will be volatility in stock markets both before and after that date as traders take positions on the most likely outcome, then the consequences. I have no predictions as to the winners, but will happily admit I hope it is not Trump. If you think the US market will fly on a Biden win, buying a low cost S&P 500 tracker fund or better still an ETF would be the way to place your bet.

I have devoted recent research time to my quest to identify funds in the out of fashion value segment of the out of fashion UK stock market. This is all part of my current focus on contrarian investing which I hope will be educational.

Here is a chart:

UK-Value-funds-in-2020Download

This shows performance data for 3 funds and a benchmark. One of the funds (Man GLG) popped up from the research process that I explain in the recently published article offering an example of research into out of favour funds Pick a fund for the future or how to be a contrarian (m) The other 2 I have invested in myself in the recent past.

The Premier Miton fund I identified many years ago when I spotted an unusual combination of managers, but they promptly upped sticks and left after I started following it! Fortunately, the hastily brought in replacement manager also knows his way around the darker corners of the UK market.

The TM Crux offering (note that Crux are the management group, not Thesis, who are just supplying corporate director services) comes from a group founded by managers who made their name elsewhere and wanted a higher degree of personal involvement – a common pattern that often does not work so well. In the case of Crux, I think they have not been overly ambitious and the founders are probably wealthy enough to cope with a gentle build up of funds. The Special Situations fund manager Richard Penney ran a very focused fund at Legal & General and is one of te most contrarian investors I have come across. He only moved across to Crux recently.

Which of these funds would you buy? I imagine you might want me to answer that question rather than ask it!

I personally would look at the top 10 holdings of the funds to assist in making that decision.

It looks to me like the Crux fund manager has taken the view that he can make good money on relatively large defensive stocks being in fashion in the light of a pending recession. The Man GLG fund seems to have taken bets that expectations of a recession are overdone and is holding stocks that would do very well if the recovery is quick and dramatic. The Premier Miton fund seems to me to be what is always was – a fund where the stock picking is careful, agnostic of style and sector and in spite of the fund name, not an out and out value fund.

What would I do?

This is a very broad assessment, but when we are predicting the future (or at least betting on it) I think we would be wasting our time being too pedantic – more detail will not necessarily improve results!

My assessment (never a recommendation for any reader in particular) is:

  • the Crux fund is being run by a manager who needs decent results now, because he is in a new job and so it is only mildly contrarian at this time
  • the Premier Miton fund is what it always was, a great way of getting exposure to UK shares away from the mega caps focus of the FTSE100
  • the Man GLG fund is one for those who want to bet against the mainstream and so most useful as a medium term satellite ‘returns booster’ but one that could go badly wrong. It is the true contrarian in this list.

I can tell you that I have bought the Man GLG fund already, but only to acquire a very modest weighting in my portfolio. If you believe in contrarian investing, you have to at times take on the associated risk!

The other 2 funds might well feature in my portfolio again, having done so in the past.

I will still do more research in this segment. If readers have their own ideas, I would love to discuss them!

Filed Under: Education, Funds

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