Take a look at this chart:
The above is one measure of retail sales growth in Great Britain (Source: Statista).
Markets
Midweek Musings – Inflection point?
I have written to the effect that bond yields would fall (so fixed income stocks would go up in value) and equities would start to revalue upwards only when markets thought that central banks had done with putting up interest rates. It would not require rates to begin falling, only that the end of the cycle of increases had probably ended.
Watching Brief – November 2023
Pottering About
I wrote this last month: ‘The better news is that October averages out as amongst the best across the whole US stock market’.
As of October 30th, the main US market is down 4% over the month and European and UK markets are also in the red. Even the Japanese and Indian markets, which had been doing rather better are down a similar amount.
Thus is the nature of averages!
Midweek Musings – economic warfare, somewhat unobserved
Over a period that was maybe a couple of years back – I can’t exactly recall – one of the propositions I regularly put forward in discussions about the relative economic strengths of the USA and China was the idea that the Chinese could seriously impact US financial policy by dumping their then huge holdings of US Treasury stock.
An oddity and an explanation?
With US bond yields hitting levels that don’t seem fully justified by the market expectations of medium term interest rates, I have been struggling in discussions to explain to subscribers why, with recessions ever more threatening in developed economies, no-one was buying bonds. Stocking up on longer duration bonds would be the logical thing to do when the market cycle is where it is now.
Midweek Musing – Morningstar on Europe
Having heard what Morningstar’s (MS) US experts think about US markets and reported that to you, I have since watched the equivalent webinar for Europe. Note that when we talk about European stocks we usually mean ex UK, whereas MS will be referring to their EMEA regional definition which includes the UK. It was notable how much less bullish the tone was overall!
Watching Brief – October 2023
Pottering About
As the section heading suggests, this month’s commentary is going to be something of a pot pourri of news and comment.
I hope at least one or two snippets will help my readership to better understand what is happening in markers, what that signifies and how to make any minor course adjustment in your portfolio planning journey.