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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Markets

YAP – a pinch and a punch on the first of the month

1st June 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

As we used to say when I was a small boy, back in another century when politicians who slept with ‘models’ resigned and stayed out of public life. Those gentler times when Russian apologists in English public life without any democratic mandate were not credited with being important enough to make public assessments of the US Justice system just because their favorite American pop idol had been found guilty of behaviour that was totally in character.

I actually mention the date because today being June 1st means we have ended May – that May of the ‘sell in May and go away’ variety.

Is this one of those years when profits ought now to have been safely banked? Of course, we can only know with hindsight in a few months’ time, but I would draw your attention to this extract from my trade press:

This focuses on only a narrow part of global equity markets, but it is the segment where most money has been made recently.

Thus the ‘sell in May’ mantra could well be applicable to some of your assets, but others may still be very fairly valued or even cheap.

My personal modus operandi is to take good profits as soon as they arise because I need money to spend from my portfolio. You may have different objectives, but there is always the risk of a ‘reversion to mean’ and the more stretched the valuation of an asset is relative to its long term ‘fair value’ average, the more painful the ‘ping’ back will be.

As it is the start of the month, I have also prepared a Deep Dive article and that will be finally edited and posted next week.

Filed Under: Markets, Opinion

YAP – a geographical shift?

14th May 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Readers will know that serious investors do not shift their asset allocations around and trade in and out of funds frequently just because of a change in short term factors. In my training I suggest having a high level asset allocation target for each main investment sector that is of interest and relevant to your objectives and to then monitor, using some sort of recording system, how your actual portfolio compares with the targets.

This is not a strict science, but part of the ongoing process of diversification and risk control.

Something I have noted from the mass flow of media data that I see

I remind you of this because I want to call your attention to what I see as being subtle changes in the thinking of the professional investment community on the relative value of North American versus European and UK markets.

I am not suggesting that you are likely to react by making major changes to your asset mix, but that you might find this helpful context in making those minor course corrections that keep the portfolio supertanker heading smoothly for its long term destination.

[Read more…] about YAP – a geographical shift?

Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

YAP – bad news, or not?

27th April 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

You will likely have noticed that the news on inflation is less positive than wished for by central banks and markets have modified their assumptions on when interest rates will start coming down. This has been reflected with direct impact for those renewing fixed rate mortgage contracts as at least in the UK, rates have actually gone up slightly.

So, is that just simply bad news?

It is certainly not good news for bonds and the FT headline today that the climate for fixed income investing is ‘unsettling’ is a good way of describing the situation.

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Filed Under: Economics, Markets, Members Only, Opinion

YAP – there’s gold in them thar central banks!

15th April 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

You may have noticed a really significant increase in the price of gold bullion in recent months.

This is because something that we have known about for some time – continuous topping up of gold reserves by the Chinese central bank – is now seen as part of a more global pattern. With such large buyers active in the market, the price is bound to be well supported.

The reason for this anticipated expansion of central bank buying? Probably 2 main reasons, I think.

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Filed Under: Asset Allocation, Markets, Members Only, Portfolios

YAP – equity supply reduced? Sell in May?

9th April 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

In my Deep Dive article at the start of April, I highlighted some reasons why prices of individual shares, or groups of shares might become detached from logically reasonable valaution levels by supply factors that were not ‘normal’.

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Filed Under: Funds, Markets

The Magnificent 7 ride again – but how many sequels can we expect?

21st February 2024 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

The table which will download if you click the link below demonstrates well how shares in the mega sized tech firms (branded the Magnificent 7 after possible acronyms got to be absurd and named in the downloaded document) have generated most of the main US market returns in 2023, and for those of us with funds that have a specific thematic bias, some excellent results too.

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Filed Under: Markets, Members Only, Monthly commentary, Portfolios

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