Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Monthly commentary

Mid-month Musings – April 2026

by Leave a Comment

Optimism or baked in behaviour?

Readers will have no doubt noticed, probably with relief, that however absurd the latest Truth Social post from Trump is, however counter-productive US policy is, however belligerent Israeli and Iranian leaders remain, whatever the direction of the oil price or data on tanker movements, stock markets have and are taking everything swimmingly. 

Perhaps that seems strange to you?  You would not be alone.

The conventional wisdom

Most experienced stock market investors would tell you that what happens in the global economy is useful in assessing the long term direction of asset valuations but really has no direct impact on short term share price movements unless that news indicates a systemic or all-encompassing change in the climate for business.

The shorter term valuation of shares should logically depend upon current company profitability, or at least expected future earnings, in the case of equities, and the trend in interest rates when it comes to fixed income stocks.

This might be the logic that should be applied currently. The markets are assuming that the war will be short lived and although oil prices have shot up with all the implications we are familiar with, this is taken as short term only and will not impact corporate profitability and perhaps only slightly delay the previous trend of reducing interest rates.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Deep Dive – April 2026

by Leave a Comment

(published early as I am having a minor operation on April 1st)

Totally Reckless Uncontrolled Malign President (TRUMP)

I have written earlier this year that the main geopolitical risks were Trump, Trump and Trump and the conduct of the Israeli/ American war with Iran has been such as to make even the most experienced independent ‘talking head’ whether a political, diplomatic or military commentator admit that they cannot detect any strategic plan, understand the USA’s actual objectives or even believe that what the President writes on Truth Social even amounts to the policy of anyone other than the man himself at that very moment in whatever mental state he happens to be and with whatever most recent influences have fed his brain.

This is a state of affairs that seems almost beyond belief but I think that some news organisations either have not grasped the reality, or feel that that they should not risk suggesting anything is other than normal and that the US Secretary of State really travels the world with a real idea of what US policy on conducting the war will be tomorrow morning. I imagine that he actually finds out what policy he is supposed to defend by reading Truth Social when he wakes up.

I could write many thousands of words telling you what I think is really happening and why, but that is not the purpose of this blog.  Investors are interested in the likely consequences of this state of affairs in terms of asset values in the near term and also beyond that.   Here are my observations on that topic. I do have to touch a little on the actual events but will do my best to stick to facts as opposed to opinions about what will happen next in the Middle East.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Deep Dive – March 26 – Iran War Edition

by Leave a Comment

This article will as promised attempt to assess some probable consequences for investors of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Looking for a precedent

Given that I was a teenager, just into working life, when the Yom Kippur War of late 1973 kicked off, it is no surprise that it is firmly printed in my memory.  I specifically recall buying petrol for my 50cc moped with a ration book!  That time period has plenty in common with what might be developing now, although it must immediately be noted that there have been some distinct structural changes in the global economy over the more than half century that has elapsed, more of which later.

As a starting point let’s take advantage of AI to get a summary of what happened then.  Here is text from MS CoPilot, lightly edited by me.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Deep Dive – February 2026

by Leave a Comment

This month, I will be passing on my thoughts on investing in Emerging Markets in the Trumpian world. 

Introductory Remarks

Most readers will know that the classification by the UK Investment Association of the Emerging Markets sector results in it incorporating funds that have very significant overlaps with funds in the Asia Pacific Ex-Japan sector, which I wrote a little about a couple of weeks back. 

In reality, there are funds named for Emerging Markets that are full of shares in companies from regions that are now fully emerged (like South Korea) and are in fact well know global businesses on a par with similar firms in the USA and Europe, companies like TSCM, Samsung and Hyundai, not to mention the Chinese internet and retail operators like Alibaba and Tencent.

This is one aspect any research needs to take into account.  Finding true ‘discovery’ or ‘frontier’ funds or even investing at all in smaller developing counties as was really possible 30 years ago, is much harder if you want to use OEICS/funds.  ETFs may offer more focused choices, but as ever, will more likely be index tracking and that brings some disadvantages, amplified when the target markets are volatile.  This article does not extend to ETF commentary.

Is owning emerging markets all about balancing assets?

Another hazard that would have been unimaginable even a few years ago is the level of political risk, most obviously in the form of (on/off) tariffs, which may be unexpectedly announced in an overnight post on Truth Social (maybe then TACO’d), and also a real risk of military actions, not necessarily in emerging market regions (although Venezuela arguably is) but which would impact global trade in unexpected ways, spook markets and so on. If markets are selling off, as a general rule emerging markets are going to be selling off more sharply, simply due to liquidity limitations.

By now, you may be thinking: ‘given the above, why bother?’ I think that would be a fair question.

However, in 2025, to my personal surprise, Emerging Markets was one of the best performing regions in US Dollar terms.  In fact, the well understood and possibly ongoing depreciation of the greenback is one of the tailwinds for developing counties, because many will have US Dolar denominated debts that are now rather cheaper to service from local currency or with other currencies earned from exports.    

Furthermore, the AI capex boom and European defence spending will both generate manufacturing demand for components of not only the electronic variety, and the cost of producing those components will be cheaper outside of the developed world, so there could well be a second wave of demand for stocks in companies not so large as the Nvidias and TSMCs of this world. Of course, even the companies of the Mag 7 will be manufacturing or sub-contracting to emerging nation workforces.

So maybe this an asset segment at least worthy of some attention.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Mid-Month Musings

by Leave a Comment

As I explained in my email at the end of last year, my plan for 2026 is to post a detailed Deep Dive article as previously at the start of the month and then add another post, which will be of whatever content I think might be useful to readers, in the middle of the month. As always, I can research and write a piece on request, if any reader wants me to.

In terms of word count and read time, the longer article will be about 2500 words with a 10 to 15 minute reading time required (and perhaps complex enough to require a second look over!) and the mid-month pieces about 1000 words and only 5 minutes demanded!

This month, I have been thinking about the markets which I have a less concrete or confident opinion about. I am pretty sure that it makes sense to invest less in the USA and more in Europe and the UK and I don’t see merit in spending time on the Japanese market, so that leads me to focus on the Asia Pacific ex-Japan region and on Emerging Markets, which two sectors would have quite an overlap in a Venn diagram.

[Read more…] about Mid-Month Musings