Monthly commentary

The ‘hook’ in my title is just to indicate that I am going to join the BBC in making Bitcoin and cryptocurrency the subject of a brief comment this week. Bitcoin’s value hitting a new record high value makes it topical.

I don’t intend to explain what cryptocurrencies are – that can be done at so many different levels and I think requires more professional graphics and video skills than I can offer if it is to be presented in an understandable way. The BBC’s posts in the finance section of their website are one quite useful introduction. Beyond that, you can go as deep as you like with some Googling.

What I want to remind readers is that although Bitcoin and many other offerings like it are called currencies, they are in reality better described (at the moment) as commodities. Their pricing is not determined by the same factors that influence the value of the US dollar or the Pound Sterling – global trade flows, central bank interest rates, government debt issuance and so on.

Governments can increase the supply of their sovereign currency at will, and to a large extent decide on its relative value (the Chinese are infamous for doing that). Because of the way crypto currencies are created using a computer process known broadly as ‘blockchain’, increasing their supply is a slow and IT resource (and electricity) intensive. That is quite different.

This makes cryptocurrencies a recognised store of value in limited supply that is usually securely stored, but can be stolen, which is hard to use for day to day financial transactions (but can be so used with the right accounts), the value of which is not within the control of central banks and which varies in value solely on the basis of supply and demand.

Just like gold bullion, in other words.

In general, cryptocurrencies are more like commodities than cash. As such they may be suitable investments for some people.

The issue that I worry about is that some hundreds of years ago, central banks realised that if they accumulated large amounts of gold, they ‘took back (some) control’ – where I have heard that phrase before? No doubt they will be asked by their controlling governments to do the same with cryptocurrencies.

In the meantime, you can expect some elements of the American Wild West, or even the European piracy boom of earlier centuries to prevail. So if this sort of investment appeals to you, do your research and make sure you know what you are getting and how you can liquidate it back to boring old bank deposit money.

The headline is not referring to those strange smelling places where people go to listen to music whilst undergoing a physical regime to better their body and mind. Most of my subscribers are past the age where that would be a tempting way of whiling away their retirement and the younger readers will be locked out anyway, at least for now.

I am suggesting some mental stretches and heavy lifting by the ‘little grey cells’.

The huge banking and asset management business J P Morgan publishes an excellent quarterly information resource and commentary called Guide to the Markets. Anyone can view the main content and J P Morgan even supply helpful viewing tools. Just search for J P Morgan Guide to the Markets using your favoured search engine (Ecosia is worth a try if you are fed up with Google monopolising the world and like the idea your searches funding tree planting to help the NHS).

There is a vast amount of material available if you want a really testing workout but if your brain has almost hibernated because of lockdowns, scroll down and look at Investment Outlook (under More Insights – in the middle). After an introduction, this has a section called Key Themes.

One article that will be of interest to investors who prefer multi asset funds is the one headed ’60:40 When bond yields are near zero’. Like much of the site content, the commentary is backed by data charts and introduces ideas without getting too complex.

There are many ways of viewing data and commentary – just like a great health club, this place has huge variety of ways of getting your workout.

The forward looking analysis that features in different ways in the data packs and articles was picked up and summarised by media outlets that I saw as suggesting that it was time to look to ‘value’ investing because the growth and momentum factors were going to run out of steam. Assiduous readers of my rambling will know that I have come around to that point of view over the last few months.

My main take from the data is that the ‘on-off’ recession we are seeing now is not like any other and deeper and faster than any in the records but that the trend in US equity valuations is more or less uninterrupted. That suggests a tension that needs to be resolved. If you keep driving your sports car hard with an oil leak and ignore the engine warning light, you will not slow down for a while but the end result will be a catastrophic engine failure.

I like one banner that I spotted on the J P Morgan site: ‘Embrace volatility. Don’t panic. Stay diversified’. Spot on! Even markets that crash offer investors opportunities, if they are prepared.

Personal contact level subscribers who would be interested in exercising their minds by working through some of the resources on offer from J P Morgan can book a ‘personal trainer’ session with me for 45 minutes or so.