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Its Not Harry

Comment and opinion for retail investors in the UK

Uncategorised

Monday mashup – what are CBDCs?

19th October 2020 by Mark Potter 2 Comments

As I got not a single question from subscribers, I will consider the Q&A idea to be a non-runner!

I will turn the tables.

My question: who knows what the above initials stand for?

I suspect no-one, yet the introduction of CBDCs has the potential to undermine the operations of every private sector bank in the world and change the whole balance of power in both democratic and autocratic countries.

I think it is possible that the wholesale introduction of CBDCs could be the best opportunity in around 150 years for governments to wrest back the power they have steadily lost to corporations since the late 19th century.

What is CBDC and does it matter?

The acronym stands for Central Bank Digitised Currency.

Digital currencies are an interesting and current topic, but like most new ‘products’ have all sorts of hidden risks at the early development stage. Maybe that is why the UK Regulator the FCA is banning the sale and promotion of digital currency derivatives (the most risky way of ‘playing’ with an investment or commodity) to retail investors from next year.

Serious Bitcoin fans who want to take out hedges and so on will get around this by dealing on overseas exchanges, I guess.

And you may know that Facebook thought having a digital currency – Libra – was a good idea and that the G7 nations were seriously opposed to that, rather supporting my proposition that controlling currency will be the new battleground between states and mega corporations.

The news is that China is encouraging Hong Kong residents to get their hands on a chunk of Chinese government digital money by giving away lottery tickets and Shenzhen residents are already able to open digital Renminbi accounts with e-wallets. China is where about a quarter of all the people in the world live, so what happens there is significant.

Would you want to put your money with a government bank?

Any of you that have National Savings Certificates or Premium Bonds have already taken that decision and many did so because they thought it was the most secure option.

That makes me think that a government sponsored e-wallet account would quickly take market share from commercial banks.

The institution that has all your money and also controls the legislative process may be one to worry about. What do you think?

Filed Under: Economics, Monthly commentary, Politics, Uncategorised

Investing in the UK stock market in a post Brexit, post Covid-19 world (m)

29th September 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Will there ever be such a world? I hope so!

I have already written that I would do some research into what funds might look attractive to investors looking to bolster their portfolio UK exposure ahead of the world as a whole changing its mind about the UK being rather risky as an investment destination

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Filed Under: Uncategorised

Watching Brief – September 2020

29th September 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

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Filed Under: Uncategorised

Monday mashup – 50 years of Friedman

14th September 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

On September 13th 1970 an essay was published in The New York Times Magazine that was to serve as the ‘permission’ for a generation of executives and politicians like Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan to encourage the free market to operate solely for the benefit of the people that theoretically funded it – shareholders.

The rant warning – but this is a bit deeper

Half a century of Friedman

The essay is summarised by the current chief executive of Salesforce, who read it when he was in business school a few years later, in these words – ‘the only business of business in business’.

Training in the late 1970s to be a Chartered Secretary – the company officer charged with keeping a business legal in the UK and many former British colonies – I was taught a different line: that companies were part of the fabric of the economy and therefore of society, so ought to be accountable to other stakeholders, like employees, the government and the consumers.

What I was taught was not, as some still argue, some leftist permission for lazy managers to avoid focusing on profit generation, but an understanding that the profits of a company were generated by the utilisation of other resources apart from capital. That is really just traditional basic economics.

I would argue that to suggest that out of the contributors to profits in a democratic world, only the capitalist should be rewarded is in fact very specifically American and indeed represents right wing liberal philosophy.

The role of companies in society

Much more recently, in his books about humanity (Sapiens etc,), Yuval Noah Harari suggest that some corporations are now so large that they have become a new form of maybe everlasting life, whose influence will forever impact on humanity as a whole.

It is reasonable easy to demonstrate the governments are now at times the servants, not the controllers, of business. The allocation of tax payers’ money to bail out banks, the printing of money (the cost of which will be serviced by the population as a whole, not corporations) and the control of political process (which only the most naïve could deny happens in the US and probably in Europe) by industry paid lobbyists are all examples.

Even in dictatorships and communist countries, the corporation is the favoured entity for corruption. The state assets stolen from the population at the end of te USSR generally went into corporations owned by a few shareholders who used to be party officials.

I would suggest that because ultra large companies offer the opportunity for a few people to acquire almost unlimited power and they will probably use that to their own advantage (not surprisingly), some checks and balances are appropriate in a democracy. This has been recognised by anti-trust law in the US and competition law in Europe, but that only addresses part of the issue and not that effectively when it comes to the ultra large businesses.

If you don’t agree with the last sentence, you must be running your PC on Linux and viewing this page in Firefox – good on you!

I was also not at all surprised to see that Daniel Loeb (an ultra capitalist) defends Friedman by suggesting that the law requires companies to focus on profits only: since the 1960s, US corporations have had the ability to influence the law to their satisfaction, most notably to eliminate foreign competitors. Did I you just think Huawei and Tic Toc?

In fairness, Mr Loeb’s main claim for shareholders is that they should eliminate poor management. Managers (I mean directors and executives) are a sub-class of the employee stakeholder group who might well be accused of acquiring too big a slice of the pie.

As investors, perhaps we should be happy to see profit maximisation as the sole focus of company boards?

That would miss one important point – those who support the Friedman argument often want to create the maximum amount of wealth for themselves, not shareholders in general. In fact, if a takeover or merger that was in their interest would wipe out our investments in a good profitable company, it would not worry them at all!

In their world, the few are supposed to win and the many lose and we, sorry to tell you, are amongst the many.

Sharks or dolphins?

It is obvious that at a basic level, indeed it is a human right, we all need to eat good food. The most efficient and ruthless eaters are maybe sharks, or wolves, or locusts. Should the world seek to adopt their feeding process? I think not.

Most people, because of what humanity is, understand that companies should be run with ethical governance, in a way that sustains the human race and shares wealth with those who are less powerful contributors to its creation, like employees.

The rise of ESG investing and the evidence that well governed companies actually make more profits from normal business operations – quite a different idea from making money for those who are rampant market manipulators and speculators – suggests to me that 50 years down the road Friedman’s proposition is at last being consigned to history. I really hope so.

Filed Under: Rants, Sustainability/ESG, Uncategorised

Wot, no IFA?!

18th August 2020 by Mark Potter Leave a Comment

Research published by Aegon reveals that 53% of wealthier (not exactly defined) individuals are confident managing their own finances.

The most common reason stated for not employing an adviser was cost (33%) then lack of trust (24%). 21% said they no longer needed financial planning advice.

Although NotHarry, of choice, has far too few subscribers to carry out a similar survey and get meaningful results, the discussions I have had with people over the last couple of years have included all of the above reasons for discontinuing an IFA relationship.

Not Harry

The function of this web site is to give those who have advisers some insights that allow them to keep an eye on the value for money they are getting, or not as the case may be. Beyond that, the material available offers insights from a long time investment professional that are intended to be helpful to those who are running their own portfolios.

In fairness to advisers, the same survey reported that of those wealthy individuals who had an adviser (17% of the survey group), 94% were happy with the service they received.

I would always a maintain that good investment and financial planning advice from an experienced and well qualified professional is worth paying good money for. The problem I have noted is that the really good value advisers all have full client books.

The remaining vast majority who do a rather inadequate job of filtering people into centralised investment propositions that have no obvious merits in return for excessive fees have also become rich on the back of consumer naivety. That is partly because we have had more or less rising (bull) stock markets since 2008. All that will change before too long.

Filed Under: Cost of investing, Rants, Uncategorised

Monday mashup – it’s electrifying!

10th August 2020 by Mark Potter 2 Comments

(1978 song reference)

I am showing my age again – picking a phrase squealed by John Travolta’s character (not sure he actually did the singing) in the 1978 film Grease. I picked it because contrary to my expectations, the subject of electric cars and Tesla in particular has popped up in research I was doing today.

My plan has been to collect some data to see how the few global mid cap and small cap equity funds had done year to date relative to the well known and mainly large cap global equity funds (eg Fundsmith). By cap, I am referring to market capitalisation meaning the total value of the company’s listed shares. The range of companies quoted on markets is usually divided into large, mid, small and micro cap and there are different indices for these markets in many countries (eg the S&P 500 and The Russell 2000 in the USA – large and small cap indices).

When will they ever learn….? (1962 song reference)

I was however immediately diverted because I had started with North America as my research sector when my attention was drawn to the Baillie Gifford (BG) American funds whose recent performance has been incredible – and I use the word literally.

It is immediately obvious that this is largely because they have a very heavy weighting to Tesla shares. Now I don’t have enough data to know exactly when and at what price the BG manager bought the Tesla shares but it is possible he has made a profit of several 100 percent on his holding, contributing maybe 20-30% or even more to his year to date fund level return.

Now you probably know that Tesla is now valued as worth the same as Toyota, Volkswagen and Ford combined. Yet its much announced improved production of cars was in fact not much better than in 2018 and it only declared a small profit because it sold carbon credits to competitors.

The launch in the US of a single, narrow segment sports car from GM (the Corvette C8) is said to have generated more public interest than Tesla ever has (although there is no exact evidence, this is based on internet interactions) and yet I doubt if people who are not sports car fans like me have ever heard of the C8 Corvette.

It is indisputable that the value of the Tesla business in the stock market is absolutely nothing to do with its potential profitability from producing electric cars. I don’t know what it really is – I have yet to read a plausible explanation. So I just see it as a new tulip bulb (see Wikipedia – Tulip Mania 1637).

I mention this not because I want to warn you off buying Tesla stock – that is not within my area of expertise. I am using it as an example of why making fund comparisons on the basis of recent past performance is even more pointless than usual at this moment in time. In mid 2020, owning, or not owning just one or two stocks over the last few months would make a huge difference to relative performance.

I think my original objective will need to be modified and I will take a look at the longer term differences (if any) between funds defined by the market cap of their holdings. An update will follow!

Filed Under: Rants, Uncategorised

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